Since March 19, led by Zheng He set out on cotton washed to the highest since the Spring Festival 17,440 yuan / ton, after the road began callback. Recent days, Zheng cotton trading range has been shrinking, steady trading center near the 17000 line, showing great differences long and short. Although cotton is still one of the few types of products one of the fundamentals better, but I believe that, based on the following considerations, Zheng cotton up late the resistance will gradually increase.

From the monetary policy point of view, the month of March Bureau of Statistics data on CPI rose 2.7%, than the market expected and also exceeded the one-year commercial bank deposit interest rates 2.25%, which means “negative interest rate” era. If the “negative interest rates,” continued the case will strengthen inflation expectations, which makes the market expectations for interest rates gradually. In addition, the recent monetary policy committee personnel changes, the new three external financial experts tend to agree that showed some signs of tightening monetary policy, which makes the pace of market speculation that interest rates may be too distant. From the exchange rate policy, financial crisis, China’s economy to recover first, the economic growth rate was significantly higher than other countries, according to purchasing power parity theory, the RMB is facing greater pressure to appreciate. According to research institutions at home and abroad is widely expected, the yuan is likely to resume in April this year, from July 2005 to June 2008 between the policy of gradual appreciation in the coming year would rise about 3% -5%. RMB appreciation will bring a strong impact on China’s textile industry, according to China Textile Industry Association introduced, every 1% appreciation of RMB, the textile industry profits will be reduced by 1%, while the current profit margin of only 4% of the textile industry, the appreciation of the renminbi may China’s textile exports will cause a large number of bankrupt companies, which is bound to reduce the demand for cotton.

U.S. Cotton Acreage is Expected to Increase

U.S. Department of Agriculture recently released U.S. cotton planting intentions report predicts that annual U.S. cotton acreage 2010/2011 is expected to reach 10.505 million acres, up 14.8%, including 10.315 million acres upland cotton and 190,000 acres of Pima cotton were up 14.5% and 34.1%. Private analysts predicted earlier this month, Informa economy, U.S. cotton acreage in 2010 to 10.3 million acres, while the Dow Jones news online, according to a survey, analysts forecast the average size is 10.44 million acres, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s predicted to be slightly higher than market forecasts. Because the United States Department of Agriculture’s report is based on March 1 after the cotton planting intentions survey conducted by households, while in March the U.S. cotton growing areas since the weather conditions and favorable cotton prices have increased acreage of cotton, so there is some market believe that the U.S. cotton may be even higher than the actual acreage data published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Accelerated out of Xinjiang Cotton

Cotton transport difficult issues is gradually improving. By the National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Finance and other ministries of the consultation and mediation, since March 23 the daily transportation of cotton from the wagon out of Xinjiang, the number is gradually increasing, the daily transportation of cotton from Xinjiang in the wagon from the original number of about 140 to the current 200, and further into the fight to continue to increase the number of Xinjiang’s empty wagon makes the daily transport volume increased to 250 wagons of cotton. Xinjiang Cotton out faster, making the mainland’s cotton resources has increased, the mainland has gradually stabilize cotton prices, stock futures weakened support role.

Spread within and Outside the Expansion of Cotton

Entered in March, because of the good sales of textile enterprises, Brand Viagra the basic run out before the Spring Festival stocking, replenishment strong will, but rather the shortage of domestic cotton resources, especially early in March, Xinjiang Cotton out of the question unresolved, the foreign Cotton prices will remain high, leading to rising spot prices of domestic cotton. Chinese cotton price index has risen more than CCI328 from early 1000 to 16,083 yuan / ton. The price index of import of cotton imports represented by lower cotton prices gradually, gradually widening spread between the two. According to statistics, CCI328 prices FCIndexM 1% tariff in accordance with the conversion price spreads have been the beginning of the -71 element from the widening of the current -1 043 yuan, the price advantage of imported cotton is gradually revealed, the callback is bound to import cotton prices continue to drag Zheng cotton.

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