Agricultural futures, or ultra-large cattle cattle from the “days” set.

Weak oscillation pattern in the depressed agricultural futures than half a year, after entering the July drought-induced, Russia, EU wheat production fears, the group drew a wave of sharp rising curve. Wheat futures on agricultural products from other leading role, almost has become a benchmark of the plate. Jumps, because capital profits, CBOT wheat futures last Friday there was limit-down and enter the high order.

Last Thursday announced the suspension of Russia’s grain exports and stable domestic supply. Recent news that Ukraine and Kazakhstan will join the camp. All kinds of information began to cross over the fundamentals of wheat, making increasingly strong expectations of production cuts.

Analysts say the weather still will dominate the future market, which are expected to reveal the answers before mid-September.

Shine strong for wheat

This year the world’s natural disasters, bad weather caused some major grain producing areas of international substantially cut. Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and the European Union wheat producing areas in some countries experienced sustained high temperature and dry weather in most growing areas led to sharp drop in yield, yield reduction is expected to reach about 30%. In wheat production is expected, the domestic futures market for wheat strength fully shown, the U.S. wheat index almost equal to the 2008 historical high price, domestic wheat futures on August 6 is the all-time high reached 2499 yuan.

In the first half had been as weak oscillation pattern of agricultural futures, entering in July after the wheat in a strong under the leadership collective to draw up a wave of sharp curves, beginning the agricultural futures market started the curtain.

Situation from last Friday, fell substantially from pre-market funds rose in the third consecutive day after the surge of profit taking. Ding Ya-Wanda futures commodity researcher interpretation Ren Wei, the national level, national policy is this year’s grain price stability, which means that the country’s total wheat imports are likely to use hands to regulate the market outlook, stock prices of high quality wheat, to avoid a significant rise of its emergence the market. “Recently up too much, a bit too much.” Ding Ya-known.

Almost at the same time, the Russian government announced a ban on exports of some agricultural products, including wheat, mixed wheat, barley, rye, corn, wheat flour, wheat and rye flour mixed system, the measures from this year on August 15 to December 31 the date of implementation.

Ding Ya-based on past data, the annual estimates from 2010-2011 Russia exported approximately 6.5 million tons of wheat. “6.5 million tons in annual export volume is still within the scope of our preliminary forecast, the global wheat supply and demand is still relatively relaxed, do not support the futures prices continued upward.”

First agricultural futures, said senior analyst Dong Shuangwei, Russia cut production three times this year, is expected to weather factors, fear is not over. Dong Shuangwei further analysis of the South are journalists, said the United States wheat stocks high, do not rule out the left hand, will push prices up waiting for an opportunity.

Agricultural futures market determine the extent of drought

Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, the simultaneous movements, no doubt will make increasingly determine the expected cut. Prices start from the last round, wheat futures on the leading role of other agricultural point of view, has become the benchmark section.

Earlier, a senior agricultural analysis made it clear that once the factors of drought continue to do to become a reality, and the prices on more than just Daniel, but there may be super cows.

However, there is little difference between his view that the weather caused by Russia’s cut the bull market is likely to trigger future, the fundamental reason is that funds should come to realize the value of agricultural products, and the large monetary financial environment.

“Drought of the whole trend is still very critical.” Dongshuang Wei told reporters that China is still between the acquirer and the wheat farmers of the game. Because of inflation, a strong seller mentality in fact reluctant sellers. If a subject outside the plate, this may even go higher, but will slightly slow down the pace of some.

Observed that since the country before the fight against speculation in agricultural commodity prices out of the punch, and the current financial speculation has not aggressively approach. Tom Vilsack on Tuesday also denied the speculative buying of wheat rose to say the main reason. “The market is still at large financial concern, judging stage, once the market starts, they will certainly move more rapidly. Follow-up beans, and fats and oils products total increase will be greater.

Judging from the recent release of the reports, the major brokerages, for the second half of agricultural sector has maintained a more positive and optimistic attitude. Remind attention will be issued two weeks ago, key enterprises of agricultural products into the control file. “For decades are not considered for inclusion, are also expected to state the action that will increase agricultural products, has begun to back-up measures..

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