The international financial crisis, China’s power has already experienced more than one year recovery period. The first half of this year, the National Electric Power run smooth, fat consumption growth, supply capacity continues to increase, the data indicates that the power industry seems to triumph. However, there are indications that in the second half, demand for electricity in turn confronted with many difficult to determine or even unexpected changes, subtle movement of annual electricity needs attention.

1. The current data show that China’s electricity: electricity thriving heavy industry, energy saving mission difficult

Into the heavy chemical industry phase, the industrial electricity consumption trend in China shows a high correlation with the macroeconomic cycle fluctuation characteristics: the economic decline in the entry stage, first to the second industrial growth declined sharply electricity accounting, tertiary industry and residential electricity consumption is relatively strong, accounting for up instead of down; and return to the economic upswing, the various types of electricity were restored growth, growth of secondary industry leader, accounting for a significant rise. In 1997, two economic crises in 2008 and the subsequent recovery process, the basic trend of China’s electricity consumption in each industry comply with the above rules.

This year, the third industry and residential electricity consumption trends are downward trend emerged early in the third industrial power in May than in April, the monthly residential electricity consumption reduction 4,5,6 month, historical statistics are broken law, coupled with the second industrial power in the light of the financial crisis, recovery has been weak Shi Zhong, can be said that this year China’s recovery and growth in electricity demand is largely dependent on heavy industry, especially high energy-consuming industries, heavy industry Yongdian stood out.

Consumption trend is a reflection of socio-economic conditions. China’s energy efficiency is low, a single structure, the international division of labor and low-end, extensive economic growth, the problem is not a fundamental change in the short term. In particular, to weather the financial crisis, means we are still a large number of investment, “Rail-based” projects, mainly indirect catalytic high-energy consuming industries. Lack of competitiveness of the tertiary industry in China is still present, the level of consumption did not significantly improve.

In this case, the high energy-consuming industries and other industrial development does not match the inherent crisis. If domestic demand does not fundamentally improve the international background of long-term lack of improvement in the economy, our country will lose the main driving force of economic growth. 2009 has been strong performance of short-term macro-economic data can not replace in-depth reform of the rehabilitation, but merely to provide some buffer for time.

However, it should be noted that the imbalance in China’s industrial structure is now in the heavy chemical industry phase and phase characteristics of the urbanization phase, if it as a problem, it has accumulated more than ten years, if you want to promote Ren Wei its transformation is afraid to go through a certain time and the process can be achieved, therefore, saving energy will be a long, difficult mission.

2. The second half of the overall power situation is weaker, weak growth in the late

Electricity Demand and the Economic and Social closely related to the statistical data with a relatively significant level of periodicity, periodic and seasonal periods of rule. Electric current of the whole society down trend has emerged signs of change in the late third quarter of concern.

1-2 months to year as the base power consumption of the whole society, in June this year, the fixed base curve has fallen to a historical standard curve below is last year, the first time since March. First half of the fixed base curve downward trend in 2008 has some similarities, it is worth attention.

As of June, the whole society’s monthly electricity consumption chain curve has 2 consecutive months below the standard curve of history. Based on past changes in the law of electricity situation, if more than 3 consecutive months, the standard curve and historical bias in one direction, tend to indicate power situation may be even more serious social and economic situation changes, so the third quarter of electricity trend deserves special attention.

By the financial crisis, China’s power consumption in late 2008, early 2009, once sustained negative growth, but from 2009 to date, monthly electricity consumption up 10 months of consecutive growth rate of more than 10%, which is for 7 months over 20%. However, there is the power consumption characteristics and business cycle turning point in the season during the statistical base of the dramatic changes at this stage “growth year” has not accurately show the actual operating conditions. Fixed base curve of the actual rates of change for the standard curve as a “fixed base index” than the “year on year growth,” truly reflects the power closer to the trend.

Observed since early 2009, fixed base index curve can be found in the less seasonal and periodic fluctuations, the year the growth in demand our real weakness, even turning down the recent trend has now dropped to its lowest point since early 2009. This is also reflected from a side, not really turned fine on the international economic situation, China’s policies to stimulate economic recovery measures have been effective attenuation occurred, post-growth promoting weak. In order to maintain sustained economic growth, policy efforts need to be further increased or introduced new policy measures, the current turning point in the lean phase.

In short, the third quarter was the key period of economic restructuring, it could be the turning point of the macroeconomic trends, trends in consumption will also appear on the appropriate signal. Should be highly concerned about the economic situation and trends of changes in consumption trends, strengthening the monitoring of early warning, tracking closely Growth and the Decline of high energy consumption industries. Adhere to energy saving and economic restructuring of major policies, while Zhuyijiaqiang market mechanisms, give full play market allocation of resources fundamental role in radically transform the economic development mode, through Buduan deepening reform long-term economic restructuring and Falling Energy consumption of the mission.

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