From the domestic passenger business point of view, the growth rate reflects not only the same period in 2008 was suppressed demand, but also contains the natural growth of the industry.

Undergone restructuring and integration of the three aircraft “three pillars” of the situation in the formal establishment of the airlines in the fleet of construction, network layout, marketing ideas and other aspects of the more rational thinking and operations. Demand for domestic airline industry recovery, moderate capacity growth, fuel prices remain relatively low, the airline industry’s profitability will gradually improve.

Season Ruqierzhi

According to CAA statistics, in July 2009, the Civil Aviation Gong Yun Shuzong complete turnover 3.7 billion tons km, passenger transport volume of 2103 million people, cargo transportation volume 360,000 tons, respectively, year on year increase of 13.5%, 21.9% and 3.2% , the domestic aviation market season Ruqierzhi. Air China, China Southern and China Eastern Airlines three major domestic passenger traffic grew 21.9%, respectively, 15.5% and 30.17%. However, due to sluggish international market, domestic airlines will add capacity and some international shipping lines shifted to the domestic aviation market, Air China, China Southern and China Eastern investment in the capacity on international routes increased by -12.5%, respectively, 0.6% and -1.94% The capacity in the domestic passenger market inputs, respectively, an increase of 20.6%, 15.2% and 29.4%, the industry load factor, although the carriage rate significantly higher than the same period in 2008, rebounded, but did not return to 2007 levels. Compared to passenger pick up, freight recovery is still not satisfactory.

Route points of view, to benefit from the release of domestic economic recovery and demand in the domestic market season is approaching, to maintain high growth domestic routes, fares index to rise again.

From the passenger load factor point of view, in July 2009 was up 76.6% Load Factor, the chain increased 2.8 percent, an increase of 1.7 percentage points; is class carriage rate of 66.9% over the previous year are slightly higher than Central. Input from the capacity point of view, the airline is still the capacity to invest in domestic, to invest in passenger transport market, capacity investment and market demand showing consistency.

Fare level from the point of view, in July, regardless of distance, intermediate, or extension, domestic airlines ticket prices have significantly exceeded the same period in 2007 and 2008 levels, an important commercial and tourist city ticket discounts significantly reduced, most of the business city prices remain above the Bazhe.

Although the increase in international flights on domestic routes far behind, but international routes to achieve positive growth for the first time, an increase of 0.33%. Because the airlines are not to put more capacity on international flights, international passenger load factor, significantly increased.

According to data released by IATA, the international business major decline in passenger aviation market has been greatly narrowed. However, international routes and in Asia, Hong Kong and Macao routes fare levels have not been signs of recovery, according to IATA statistics, data, despite significant recovery in passenger traffic on international routes, but the airlines to some extent at the expense of votes price level price. At present, the international aviation market is still some time before full recovery, especially the “two-class” business.

Driven by the civil aviation business, airport passenger throughput and aircraft movements and the gradual recovery in these two indicators, in particular the same period in 2008 suppressed the capital’s airport and Shuangliu Airport, traffic fast recovery. Benefit from the FedEx hub in business growth, Baiyun airport, cargo and mail throughput rapid growth. Currently, the airport’s cargo operations at a relatively slow overall situation, the international air cargo business is still shrinking gradually decline is expected to decline in global economic growth under the influence of the slackness of freight will Chixu.

Oil prices are expected to maintain the low range

With international oil prices, domestic fuel prices began to rise. September 2, 2009, the domestic jet fuel prices rise by 300 yuan / ton, jet fuel sales rose to 5,490 yuan / ton, the level of fuel prices back to early 2006 levels, domestic fuel prices and international fuel prices have been inversion.

With rising oil prices, domestic airlines to bear the cost pressure will gradually increase. According to past experience, is expected to fuel surcharge is expected to re-sign, the collection of standard the following flight segments may be 800 km, 30 yuan / person, 800 km leg (or more), 60 yuan / person. However, the current international oil prices continued to decline in fuel prices in Singapore fell to 75 dollars / barrel below, which will levy fuel surcharges to bring some important uncertainties.

Opportunities facing the shipping sector

August is usually the best time of the airline industry profitability, the industry will continue to go up to maintain volume and price situation, oil prices remain relatively stable in the case of the airline’s profitable core business will be further enhanced. From the perspective of domestic passenger business, business growth not only reflects the same period in 2008 was suppressed demand, but also contains the natural growth of the industry. Undergone restructuring and integration of the three aircraft “three pillars” of the situation in the formal establishment of the airlines in the fleet of construction, network layout, marketing ideas and other aspects of the more rational thinking and operations. At the same time, the airline’s capital injection into the concrete operational stage, China Eastern, China Southern Airlines, the flight of non-public offering have been completed, were given 7.0 billion, 30 million and 1 billion fund, the airline’s financial situation improved. September, Donghangjihua particular object again Jinxing private placement, Muji 7 billion capital, if the smooth completion, China Eastern Airlines are leaving “insolvent” situation. We maintain our aviation segment, “recommended” rating, the proposed attention to Air China (601111), ST China Eastern Airlines (600115).

In addition, the airport board, we recommend attention to the Shanghai Airport (600 009) investment opportunities. On the one hand, due to the recovery on international routes, benefits and other factors known to the world expo in Shanghai airport to the good growth trends. On the other hand, problems on the asset is expected to progress into the present, the company received the controlling shareholder Shanghai Airport (Group) Co., Ltd. “on the group to adjust the informed investor”, the Shanghai Airport (Group) Co., Ltd. owned by the Shanghai Assets Supervision and Administration Commission to fulfill the responsibilities of investor. This adjustment is expected to straighten out the relationship between ownership groups to address the future of asset restructuring in the land issue, thus speeding up the process of asset injection, into the second half of the assets expected to be further strengthened. We maintain the Shanghai Airport (600 009) “recommended” rating.

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