There are weeks away from the U.S. mid-term election time, the face of high unemployment, politicians will naturally promise to voters, as they increase employment. So they began to harden in China.

U.S. Treasury secretary last Thursday on the Senate Banking Committee said the government has to consider all the tools and methods to stimulate the Chinese government to speed up the pace of yuan appreciation. We can interpret this: We are in the edge of trade sanctions.

Even Geithner said so much, not let the senators satisfied. New York Democratic Senator Charles Schumer angrily said that trade with China is “weakening the United States, reducing American living standards and weaken the United States as a world power’s strength.”

Senate Banking Committee, Republican heavyweight, Alabama Senator Cherbet (Richard Shelby) demanded: “Why are there departments to protect the Chinese, do not want to call it a currency manipulator?”

Indeed, China may artificially underestimate the value of its currency. If China allowed the yuan to appreciate, the relative price of Chinese exports even more expensive for the United States, U.S. exports become relatively cheaper. This may help reduce the trade imbalance.

Although the June issue of China announced reform of RMB exchange rate, but since then the yuan against the dollar only rose 1%. U.S. trade imbalance with China is increasing, in the first half, China’s trade surplus reached 119 billion U.S. dollars the United States, which makes the balance of trade between the two countries this year will exceed last year’s 227 billion U.S. dollars.

First, China may be counter. Should know that China is the biggest U.S. bond investors, holders of U.S. debt capacity more than 843 billion U.S. dollars. If China wants to sell a huge amount of U.S. Treasury bonds, that U.S. borrowing costs will surge – the United States will be more bad outcomes.

Second, China artificially low to maintain the value of its currency, the price is high – need to buy a huge amount of dollars in China. Undervalued currency to the dollar more expensive, why do people think that they would never bored with it?

Every year, tens of thousands of poor people will flood into China’s cities, hoping to get a higher income, and if not find a job, the risk of social crisis in China will gradually accumulate. Of course, the Chinese government policy-makers will choose to create employment, and not allowing its currency to appreciate in order to cause a significant reduction in the risk of domestic jobs.

U.S. exports may be cheaper than China, Japan, Germany and the other the strength of the exporting country can not be underestimated. Unemployment rate in all developed countries are in a high, each country’s government to bear the pressure of creating employment.

Meanwhile, those who because of RMB appreciation, the price of goods sold to the United States become a high Chinese manufacturers – can shift production to other countries with low currency prices. In fact, China has begun to increase wage levels, the Chinese manufacturers have started to gradually shift production to Vietnam, Indonesia and other low wage countries in Southeast Asia.

Worries me the most is that these hard-line dialogue with China will focus on the shift from the real issue. High unemployment rate in the United States not because we have too many from China to buy goods, sell it inadequate – should know that trade with China accounts for a small share of the U.S. economy.

20 million Americans do not work, because the U.S. consumer – especially the large number of middle class – their level of consumption has declined, consumer spending will not be back to almost everyone working age.

After 30 years of middle class wage stagnation, economic growth has passed its peak, the United States eventually to a “settlement” date. The middle class can not re-use their house as collateral to borrow large sums of money, and they have to start saving for retirement.

For the United States, the core of the challenge is not to re-balance trade with China, but to rebalance the U.S. economy, so that the wealth of society as a whole can be more widely shared.

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Category: Business Management
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