The European Commission has the EU’s economic growth forecasts to 1.8%, close to the forecast in May this year, twice. Although the EU economic recovery was better than originally expected, but the outlook remains fraught with uncertainty. The face of the financial markets remain fragile, weak rebound in private consumption and export situation of the three major risk of becoming serious, the EU economy can be described as internal and external co-exist.

Financial instability risks remain

The first half of this year, a sovereign debt originated in the Greek crisis over the euro zone countries, led once again into the European financial market upheaval. This year in May as “watershed”, thanks to the European Union launched the month nearly one trillion euros rescue mechanism, the debt crisis in Europe have gone through the worst moments.

Since May, the majority of EU countries has narrowed spreads of government bonds, corporate bond spreads began to narrow, but still well above the EU earlier this year when the debt crisis erupted just a level.

This indicates that investors are worried about the risk of sovereign debt despite the reduced, but not significantly eliminated, the European debt crisis is far from full stop, Greece and Spain, the debt problem could be endangered at any time the EU financial stability ” malignant tumor. ”

In late July, the EU announced the first results of the European banking sector stress testing. The results showed that, in the acceptance of “medical examination” of the 91 European banks, only seven failed to pass, and the remaining 84 were second bottom can withstand the economic crisis and sovereign debt upgrade a double blow. The result of this rather optimistic, but has been challenged from outside, in particular, is thought to underestimate the risk of sovereign debt.

Experienced a financial crisis and turns to the impact of the debt crisis, European financial industry is badly weakened. Recent global stock market crash, the reasons behind the health of European banks renewed concern. According to the U.S. “The Wall Street Journal” revealed that the European Union in July did stress tests banks underestimated the number of non-performing loans held by European banks, which means that the European banking sector stress testing is not as healthy as reflected.

In the economic forecast report, the European Commission also acknowledged that another tight financial situation in Europe still can not rule out the possibility.

Banks face financing challenge

The European Commission believes that as the debt crisis has been eased in Europe, the market is the focus of concern from European financial institutions to move down and did not reverse the issue of financing difficulties. Currently, the European stock markets remain depressed, while the European financial sector is about to enter a financing its peak, can successfully raise the money would be a severe test.

According to IMF estimates, the euro area bank debt falls due this year about 877 billion euros, the next two years was 771 billion euros and 714 billion euros, need to repay the financing. Meanwhile, according to just-released 12 “Basel III”, The European banks need to further enrich the next few years, the capital, to meet the more stringent capital ratio requirements.

Financing difficulties will not only affect the stability of the banking sector, but also limit the ability of bank lending, affecting the real economy sector.

EU official figures, in recent months, European financial institutions to slow growth in household loans, the loans provided by non-financial corporations continued to decline. European Central Bank’s latest survey also showed that European financial institutions are tightening credit to enterprises, part of the debt crisis in Europe is worried.

If the European banking industry get out of difficulties, reluctance to lend not ease the situation, then the greater will be the impact of the real economy in Europe, because European companies have always been heavily dependent on financing from banks.

According to ECB estimates, 70% of euro area non-financial enterprises rely on bank loans for financing, while 80% of U.S. companies through capital market financing is direct.

Domestic demand and external demand flank

From the internal point of view, in addition to the financial situation is not optimistic about a rebound in private consumption was weak European economy is another major worry.

The first two quarters of this year, the EU economic recovery driven mainly by exports, while private consumption and investment were sluggish growth or even decline.

As the EU’s largest economy, Germany is the EU member states in economic recovery of all the most powerful one, this is more thanks to exports. According to German government data, 14 the latest, during the first half of this year, German exports jumped 17.1% year on year, of which exports to non-EU countries is an increase of 26.2%.

EU countries, inadequate domestic demand, partly because of high unemployment curbed public spending, on the other hand also with many members of the implementation of fiscal austerity plan.

However, domestic demand, economic recovery over-reliance on export growth in the second half gave the EU economy cast a shadow. Given the pace of global economic recovery this year will slow down the growth of trade will in turn slow down, the EU’s export situation will become more severe, and then drag on economic growth.

According to European Commission estimates that in the third quarter and fourth quarter, the European economic recovery will be reduced, sequential growth from the second quarter fell 1% to 0.5% and 0.3%.

But the European Commission responsible for Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee Olli Rehn that, although the European economy is still full of uncertainties, but generally quite favorable and unfavorable factors, the European Union there is no danger of the second bottom and the recovery has been evident.

Author Bio: I am a professional editor from China Manufacturers, and my work is to promote a free online trade platform. http://www.cheaponsale.com/ contain a great deal of information about bar mitzvah invitations,products alpha hydroxy,large dog doors, welcome to visit!

Category: Business
Keywords: bar mitzvah invitations,products alpha hydroxy,large dog doors,