In the secondary market on the U.S. economy worries about rampant when the bottom, the European economy seems to be finally out of the recession, quagmire, to see the dawn of recovery. European Commission 13 September 2010, the EU economic growth is expected to increase from 1% to 1.8%, to 2010, the euro zone growth forecast from 0.9% to 1.7%. Nevertheless, the EU authorities and market analysts have warned that the second half of the first half of the EU economic recovery difficult to maintain the momentum of rapid economic growth will slow down.

Economic growth is expected to rise

The European Commission released on 13 major economies, the EU and the medium-term forecast report, the 2010 second quarter economic growth up to 1% of the EU, and domestic consumption in the region will continue to play a driving role in economic growth, so the EU in 2010 Economic growth is expected to increase from 1% to 1.8%; the euro-zone economic growth is expected in 2010 from 0.9% to 1.7%, both adjusted expectations are close to twice the original expectations.

The European Commission is expected in 2010, the European “economic engine” Germany will achieve the economic growth of 3.4%, well above the previously expected 1.2%; the European Commission at the same time Britain, France and Italy this year’s economic growth by 1.2% 1.3% and 0.8%, revised upward to 1.7%, 1.6% and 1.1%. EU authorities that the second half of this year, the situation of these countries will be sustained economic growth, but growth will be slow over the first half.

The European Commission said that exports and domestic demand will continue to promote economic recovery in the European Union, the European economy is unlikely that the second bottom. However, with the slowdown in the pace of global economic recovery, and the Member States to gradually withdraw from economic stimulus measures, the EU economic growth is expected in the second half will be difficult to achieve high levels of the second quarter, the economic recovery process will be slow. EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Rehn said the European economic recovery on track, but uncertainties still exist, to ensure financial market stability and continued fiscal consolidation remains a priority for the Government of Member States.

European Commission to point out that in 2010, the EU member of the Spanish high-debt economy will continue to shrink 0.3% slump even in the 0.4% previously forecast.

No guarantee that the recovery peace of mind

Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development released the latest data, the European Commission confirmed the second half of the expected economic growth in Europe. OECD 13, first announced comprehensive economic index shows that global efforts to slow the economic recovery is more apparent than last month, recently, Europe and the United States in major developed economies, economic growth may have peaked.

Among them, France, Italy, Britain and other countries began to negative growth in the leading index of economic slowdown signals more strongly than expected; Germany, although the index is still growing, but growth has slowed, it may also be the recent peak signal.

In addition, the EU economy some of the contradictions inherent in the short term is difficult to be resolved. National Information Center of China Research Associate Department of Mo Zhang Nan pointed out that despite the recent economic data showed the euro zone’s economic performance was better than expected, the debt crisis in Europe is towards the end, but the beautiful data conceal the uneven economic development within the euro area situation, members of the economic polarization becoming increasingly clear that European economic integration has been caught in embarrassing situations. Among them, the 16-nation euro zone economic growth in the second quarter, about two third contribution from Germany; the same core members of the French euro-zone economy is far from satisfactory; other countries outside the euro area’s performance is unsatisfactory, could hurt overall economic recovery in the euro area. Mo Zhang Nan, said Germany “single-engine,” not for long cart drive the EU economy, Europe needs a smaller difference of monetary union.

Be exposed first to the debt crisis of the EU member Greece is a typical example, at present, the country’s economy remains in a serious contraction. Greek National Bureau of Statistics announced on the 13th, the second quarter, Greece’s GDP, compared with the same period last year fell 3.7%, compared with the previous quarter, down 1.8%. Recently, the EU officials to visit Greece, analysts expect the European Union will be the Greek authorities may take further measures to debt problems.

Health status of the euro area banking market is also not completely quell concerns. Last week, “The Wall Street Journal” reported that the euro area bank stress tests may have underestimated some of the bank’s position in high-risk government bonds, the scale of the market upheaval triggered; Ireland has become the biggest pain in the European banking sector, the Government announced the spin-off Anglo Irish state-owned banks, investors are worried that the Irish government to save the country’s banking sector and the cost will greatly exceed the previous forecast of 250 million euros.

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