As the slow recovery of economic growth, the French have the community do all we can now analyze the causes, make plans, intended to help early recovery of the national economy. French “Le Monde” is published in a recent analysis of articles, analysis out of the crisis period, France and Germany, the difference of economic growth mode. Data show that the second quarter of 2010, French GDP, compared with growth of 0.6% in the first quarter, a 16-nation euro zone second quarter GDP growth of 1 percent, Germany’s second-quarter GDP growth of 2.2%.

Compared with France, the German economy is clearly stronger cyclical. Crisis comes, the German than French although the big drop in a recession, but economic recovery in Germany than in France fierce economic recovery. At the same time, differences between France and Germany’s exports before the crisis and the crisis has always existed, and this is the impact of the crisis in France by the relatively small number of German to one of the reasons. French rely more on domestic market, so its economy better protected. But also because of the existence of differences between the two countries export, but also directly led to the recovery progress of different countries. At present, China and other emerging countries are growing stronger, and now the economic growth of India and Brazil, already higher than the rate before the crisis, and even South Africa began 上升. Long analysis pointed out that developed countries To promote economic growth, in addition to firmly grasp of the world GDP45% of world trade, has no other choice. Germany took advantage of the first quarter of the world economic situation is getting better and decisively to seize this opportunity, from the emerging economic recovery gained a lot.

In addition, the 2009 hit by the crisis in France is smaller than in other neighboring countries, largely due to “social model.” France has relatively sound social security system and tax system, but also a double-edged sword of social mechanisms. In a crisis, these mechanisms play a reduced role and resist the crisis, but the reverse effect on the economic recovery Shiyou. In contrast, Germany, before the crisis, consolidation of public finances, reduce the social subsidies, wage compression, increase value-added tax, control of the budget deficit. As the tax and social model in the enterprise have a great impact on export capacity, so to reduce corporate and labor taxes, this part of reducing the VAT tax increase, from one aspect of this approach also greatly stimulate the enterprises export initiative. Since the reforms began in 2003 in Germany since the German economy has been growing rapidly. France is now gradually recognized the problem, beginning from the deferred retirement age to proceed with reform of the social model.

Analysis, simply compare the second quarter of this year, economic growth in France and Germany did not have significance, in the long run the gap will disappear. France competitive in the labor cost is still better than the German.

French economic growth, with the four conditions required

French Foreign Trade Bank (Natixis) Two recent studies that compared to Germany, the Netherlands and other European neighbors, France’s economic future can only get a slight increase over time. In the second quarter, the economy grew by 0.6%, Germany 2.2%; annual economic growth of 1.4% is expected in France, Germany, 3%. Meanwhile, the French government has economic growth in 2011 down from 2.5% to 2%, while international countries the IMF (IMF) 7 during the month the French economic growth predicted in 2011 will not exceed 1.6%.

2009 crisis, the French economy is relatively defensive (down 2.2%), social and tax preferential policies to support a large extent, the domestic consumption, prevent the economy fell sharply. But why in the current process of economic recovery, the recovery of France is lower than other countries? IMF believes that the French measures against the crisis is likely to also slow down the momentum of economic recovery.

Foreign Trade Bank analysts believe that the French economy is to restore the normal growth rate, the specific needs of four conditions: First, companies need to increase resources in emerging countries and exporting countries exports; Second, families are able and willing to increase the domestic debt; Third, enterprises can improve self-financing capacity to increase investment; fourth is to reduce the deficit should be taken to avoid over-tightening measures.

Natixis study that, first of all France is less from the world trade, especially with emerging countries, to benefit the growth of trade among the countries, France, emerging countries export only to his own 10% of total exports, while Germany, the proportion reached 25%. Second, France to reduce budget deficits, wage increases, leading to weaker growth in domestic demand is weakening one of the factors of economic growth.

Finally, in France in 2013 to the current rate of 8% in the fiscal deficit to 3%, to curb spending nearly 100 billion euros, which will inhibit the first time home consumption, thus affecting economic growth. While Italy, Portugal and Spain will also face similar problems.

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