There are two look at Northeast Asia has a way, and have unfolded. One is the area regarded as the land of frequent tension, turmoil and potential disaster to the land. Japan and China – one old-time country, and the other is the rising power; one is in a state of political paralysis, the other full of self-confidence; an important partner of the United States, the other potential adversaries of the United States – suffered , because nowadays the old hostility or contempt for real or unreal become more intense. In the divided state of the Korean Peninsula, China’s allies, a nuclear-armed Stalinist monarchy is close U.S. allies – a vibrant democracy. All the above ingredients into the same pot, you can easily see why critics tend to believe that one day it will taste bitter.

However, here there is a look at the way the region: about here as the land of peace and prosperity in the land. Although North Korea is still an isolated community, a cruel dictatorship of poverty, but in comparison, South Korea and Japan’s modern history is a remarkable history of human development, health status and wealth has risen to 50 years the former can not imagine the level. Over the past 20 years, China has also joined with them, the ranks of prosperity.

So, Northeast Asia will become the kind of look like? Land of the conflict or peace to the land? Recently there are some signs that will be the former. In Korea, Kim Jong-il regime seems to begin moving to the Kim Jong-Il’s son transfer of power Jinzheng En direction. Pyongyang, for a large number of observers, this is enough to cause nervous. Make them more nervous, just before the time of succession problems, Seoul there are rumors that Kim Jong Il stroke two years ago it was sick. Set aside the transfer of power may occur Pyongyang did not say, because South Korea has also been inter-Korean relations, “Tian” destroyer sank damage. September 13, Seoul announced on the incident long-awaited report. In fact the report found, “Tian” destroyer is sunk by North Korea.

The tension on the Korean peninsula when the relationship between China and Japan also nosedive, it is very difficult. Japan out of the Great Depression of the weak recovery by the yen’s appreciation of the obstruction. Recently, the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar hit a new high in 15 years. This makes Japan’s exports hurt. Japan’s current economic recovery may be more dependent on world markets. Japan has a large number of people to buy yen bonds to be accused of China, that China bears some responsibility on the yen’s appreciation.

In addition, on September 7, the Japanese seized a Chinese fishing boat. Japan called the East China Sea known as the Diaoyu Islands in China and Japan as the Senkaku islands in Japan’s territorial waters around the illegal activities. September 13, Tokyo released 14 crew members, but still the captain of the ship seized.

Now look promising aspects. Is still far from clear whether North Korea succeeded in going through a crisis, Kim Jong Il regime is not clear except for the long-suffering North Korean people, other than the people who are more dangerous than ever before. Recently in Tianjin at the World Economic Forum, North Korea experts say Kim Jong Il regime is changing posture from “military first” to “first economy.” This indicates that the strong political confidence rather than the contrary. While many Western countries suspect the transfer of power can be achieved, but in 1994, from Kim Il Sung to Kim Jong Il Kim Jong-il’s father, realized the power of the transition, there is no apparent crisis.

In North Korea outside the area economy continues to move forward. Today, China is Japan is South Korea’s major trading partners, and the existence of these two countries trade deficit. International Monetary Fund just cut its growth forecast for South Korea’s economy this year revised to 6.1% (this is a developed economy forecast), while the Korean stock market in recent years to create a new high.

Finally the Japanese. This country is supposed to be the cornerstone of regional peace and prosperity. But it is not. From the political side, the four appeared six years, the Prime Minister developed the world’s second-largest economy is to some extent become a joke.

Many commentators will be warned that the existence of Northeast Asia, a “black swan” of the danger that exists that can not be predicted, with unimaginable bad influence events. But Pyongyang has become more frenzied real-Japan disputes, they are not difficult to predict. I pray for a “White Swan”, which ended 20 years of Japan’s political panic, open a confidence in the region and the world to play a role in the period. Japan’s wealth and to indicate that it should be. Thus, we can certainly, the real Northeast Asia is a region of peace and prosperity.

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