It is the Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin 2 meetings of the Bureau in the government, said the point of view. He said: “I believe it is necessary to be clear that we can only be considered after the next harvest to lift food export ban … … In response to this issue (the diameter), we can not change again.”

This means that the Russian grain export ban on the cancellation of the problem at least until the end of next year’s grain harvest to the discussion, but this should be due at the end of this year’s grain export ban will continue until at least next September.

Market analysis, a move or to promote global food prices.

Ban or until next September

Rare high temperature and drought this summer weather led to the Russian grain production is declining dramatically, leading to food and related food prices rose.

The Russian government announced early in August from August 15 to the end of this year moratorium on the export of grain and its products. Russian government on September 1 to part of this ban amended to provide that in certain exceptional circumstances the export of food.

However, in the 2nd meeting of the Bureau of Government meeting, Putin said the issue of abolition of the ban on grain exports, should clarify the situation before next year’s grain harvest, and discuss the government’s position will not change. However, Putin did not give a specific timetable for lifting the ban. In general, the work of Russia’s grain harvest by the end of September early October at the end of each year.

However, according to French media say, Putin repeatedly hinted that the ban may be extended until 2011.

Putin pointed out that after the enactment of the ban on grain exports, grain market, held there watching waiting for the Government to abolish the export ban, which extended the ban is “to avoid unnecessary anxiety for all participants in the market to provide a stable and predictable business environment . ”

In response, Morgan Stanley, head of commodities research Alidina that all depends on the Russian winter wheat cultivation. The growth of winter wheat is a winter, spring harvest crops. He said his “far behind schedule.”

However, the Swiss agricultural information analyst said the market for any news on Russia announced skeptical, because once the increase in food prices food supply situation down Russia, the Russian export ban may be rescinded earlier.

Emergency meeting to discuss measures

In order to find countermeasures to deal with food price volatility, the United Nations FAO (FAO) will convene an emergency meeting this month to discuss the matter.

According to overseas media reports, the UN Food and Agriculture has notified the Member States meeting later in September, consultations in the context of the recent surge in grain prices respond to fluctuations in food prices countermeasures.

The subordinate by the FAO and the intergovernmental group on grains of rice group involved in the intergovernmental conference will be held in Rome on the 24th. FAO’s inter-sessional meeting will be held normally every two years, but the FAO background information in the meeting said, “need to be very exceptional circumstances should move.” Background information on the meeting, said the rules of the conference is in response to the recent volatility of the global grain market and the sudden price rise.

In the history of Russia faces the most severe drought, floods in Pakistan and Germany suffered the pain of the dry climate of Australia and Argentina, crop damage caused concern in the context, the meeting was considered significant.

In the past three months, the spot market price of wheat rose more than 50% to three-year high, reminiscent of the 2008 food crisis.

According to another report, FAO published in the August food price index rose 5% to 176 points, which is the index to the biggest 10-month increase in the chain. In addition, as wheat prices on global grain prices and grain prices monthly testing in August climbed 13% to 182 points.

As global production of major food exporting countries will fall down after a few rounds, the current global wheat production for 2010-2011 is expected to decline in more than 5% to 646 million tonnes.
Domestic grain prices will not fluctuate drastically

The face of food price fluctuations may impact Associate Dean of Economics, Fudan University Sun Li Jian (blog) the view that Russia’s grain export ban will be in the short term the impact of agricultural markets is inevitable, but as long as the global food no obvious cuts, basic supplies adequate, very little room for international food prices.

However, some analysts believe that, as international investors worried that other major wheat exporting countries such as Kazakhstan, Ukraine and other countries to follow Russia’s restrictions on grain exports, the future global wheat prices continue to rise is still possible. Russia had proposed customs union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan to take measures to prohibit the export of grain. Russia, Kazakhstan and other countries soon followed the steps to limit or ban food exports, will inevitably result in wheat prices continued upward.

The case of China, Jian Sun, said that with the volatility of international food prices, food prices also may have short-term phenomenon, but due to sufficient domestic food supply, coupled with the role of the government’s macro control, China no major fluctuations in grain prices .

In addition, the Central University of Finance and Management School of China’s economy is Bu Ruobai that, as an important part of the global market, China’s agricultural futures price will be subject to Russian export ban. However, differently from other markets, Putin announced that the ban might make China’s agricultural futures price in the original basis of higher and further accelerate growth.

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