The Future of Asian Emerging Markets
Low-income countries in the global financial crisis, mostly innocent victims, and now they must find a way to face a series of consequences.
They did not commit any major policy mistakes, it has been committed to the overall framework of policy and self-advancement. Nevertheless, their trade and capital flows on by a double blow. In trade, for export markets in developed countries has been shrinking; the same time, foreign direct investment did not pick up, remittances shrink cause these low-income countries suffered a serious setback on external financial support.
Core of the problem is that these setbacks on the low-income countries are likely to be long-term. Many advanced economies face large-scale medium-term fiscal cuts, expected 2015 debt / GDP ratio on average more than 120%. Worse, the developed economies, high unemployment rate is expected to decline very slowly, resulting in domestic demand is limited. They also face serious domestic challenges, rapid credit expansion and related health conditions of the banking sector risks, while inflation pressures increased. In the long term, developing Asia will face a huge infrastructure bottlenecks, especially in transport, energy and communications.
The international community should stand ready to help low-income countries to address these challenges. International Monetary Fund, the main focus on the role of macroeconomic stability and sustainable development.
July 2009, IMF revised its terms of concessional lending to low-income countries. When the additional loan and subsidy resources to start before the end of 2014, provided the loans to low-income countries worldwide will reach 17 billion U.S. dollars, while all offer Jiekuan be implemented by 2012 are zero interest rate. In addition, IMF has also increased the flexibility of borrowing, three new credit facilities have been established: extended credit to provide medium-term and flexible financial support; standby credit facility in response to short-term and preventive needs; rapid credit to provide emergency funds to respond to shocks.
Help the economy to achieve macroeconomic stability is the IMF’s core mandate, but the primary means for this purpose from bilateral and multilateral regulation. Comprehensive consideration of macroeconomic policy, systemic problems, transnational spillovers and macro-financial linkages, our local conditions in various countries for the development of bilateral regulatory scheme. As one of our cross-country experience, our emerging market for low-income countries as a reference case, and we hope that the introduction of a specific vulnerability of low-income countries designed program.
“Knowledge transfer” concept is not interesting, but it is actually very important. Through special emphasis on the management of public resources, IMF’s technical support for institutional strengthening and capacity building play a vital role.
In short, low-income countries in Asia should have its international seats, better integration of the industry chain in Asia had been laid, and continue to enhance its position in the industry chain. This depends largely on each country’s policies, but the international community must lend a helping hand. Developed countries should maintain the financial assistance to help low-income countries in Asia to overcome challenges such as global climate change, and to resist protectionist pressures.
IMF’s commitment to low-income countries comes from several fronts: borrowing, monitoring and knowledge transfer. We can also work to ensure that low-income countries in the international community the right to speak, and ongoing governance reform in the IMF in full consideration. Only in this way, the Asian low-income countries can not lag behind, and to share the common prosperity of the region.
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