As the emerging markets of rising commodity demand and supply growth is relatively limited, have already tightened supply and demand balance will be increased, thus the fourth quarter of 2010 to provide support for commodity prices.

The agency expects commodity markets one of the biggest growth will come from crude oil. In July this year, the global energy commodity prices on average increased by 3.2%, down 5.6% in total during the year, oil has outperformed the same period of “performance”, international oil prices in July this year, an increase of 3.5%, down only 4.8% accumulated during the year. Since crude oil prices rose sharply since early July, continuing low prices in May after the momentum of recovery, and in early August hit 82.55 U.S. dollars / barrel, mainly on the global economic outlook and China’s tightening policy concern about the effect on oil demand eased.

In August most of the time, crude oil prices in the callback being, from 82 U.S. dollars / barrel in the vicinity on Aug. 25 fell to less than the minimum 72 dollars / barrel, but market participants pointed out that this correction may be due to China, disappointing economic data. In July the Chinese purchasing managers index was 51.2, lower than expected crude oil imports also much lower than the same period last year, which are made on the second half of 2010 concerns about oil demand resurgence.

China’s crude oil demand in July year on year growth rate of the reason why a substantial decrease was mainly due to base effects, in July last year, China’s oil demand is very strong, reaching a peak in 2009. Note that, China is still so far to promote the main driver of global oil demand, oil demand in the first half of 2010 the total average increase of 120 million barrels / day. Although crude oil inventories increased sharply following the June 1810 barrels, the July drop of 350 million barrels, but Goldman Sachs economists believe that this slowdown is temporary, the policy later this year will be more relaxed, China’s crude oil is expected to The demand will remain at current high crude oil demand growth this year, or 9.5%.

In addition, the OECD energy demand looks very strong, for example, the total U.S. oil demand in the past two months, stabilized at 1930 million barrels, an increase of 60 million barrels / day. Goldman Sachs said global oil inventories fell in the second half of 2010, and returned at the end of season average, WTI crude oil price is expected to be pushed in the second half of 2010 up to 85 ~ 95 U.S. dollars / barrel, while the energy commodity plate The 12-month rate of return will be 27.0%.

Another favored industrial metal plate products. Overall, this year in July, including copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel and other industrial metals, including a series of “plate prices” rose by 11.1%, while the year is down only 4.8%. While the majority of goods in August there’s a callback, but includes a number of industrial metals including copper prices have remained high and volatile in the past three days, LME copper levels return to early August.

China needs a relatively defensive in the metals market performance in the role. Report that, Guo Qu months of the substantial increase in metal prices is mainly because China’s policy stance of the Gai Bian, Yi Ji Qiang Shi European financial Ling Yu uncertain economic growth unsustainable in the Danxinxiangdi, China Jue Cezhe into July Hou’s Zhengce tone Zhuanxiang mitigate the market for a sharp slowdown in economic growth and stimulus out of concern early.

China’s imports of copper and copper have also reversed the downward trend, the price of the Shanghai copper rose 6 to 8 months over 20%, while China’s copper imports in June from 21.7 million tons of low rebound, 7 months imports nearly 230,000 tons. From Goldman Sachs to provide data on China’s metals demand, China’s copper, aluminum, zinc and other metal demand remains at historically high level. Among them, the current month copper demand in China remains at 60 million to 700 thousand tons, zinc 400 000 ~ 50 million tons, while demand for aluminum in the month is approaching 1.4 million tons more. Reported that industrial metals prices in the next 12 months, still has a “constructive”, taking into account the market performance over the past few months, base metals forecasts for 12 months the rate of return as high as 15%.

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