Irish Economic Downturn May Lead to Second Round of Financial Crisis
Eurozone September 24 to the latest data show that the rate of economic growth area in September the 6th consecutive month of decline, recovery was slow. 16 members in the euro area, especially the Irish situation is most critical, the second quarter of 2010 gross domestic product (GDP), decreased by 1.2%, the economy into recession again.
As the market from the debt crisis of the European resurgence of pessimism rampant Ireland, 23 Irish euro area bond yields since the establishment of a new high record. Irish government bonds and German government bonds yield spreads widened, before its public finances of Ireland conducted a review of the week; two 10-year bond yield spread widened by 9 basis points to a record 439 basis points.
Fear made the second round of crisis in Ireland
Ireland 23, Central Bureau of Statistics announced the country’s second-quarter GDP, decreased 1.2%, down 1.8%. This means that the Irish economy in the first quarter after emerging from recession, has once again shrinking. Also in the second quarter, the Irish GDP, budget deficit as high as 14.3%, has exceeded the euro area ranks first in Greece. Analysts pointed out that although the Irish government promised in 2014 the proportion of GDP, the deficit down to 3%, but the economy will shrink again this goal difficult to achieve.
Irish finance minister Lenihan 24, insisted that the economy “did not shrink, just slow down.” Lenihan said the Irish government is to review GDP growth in 2011 expected 3.25%. Irish Central Bank Huonuo John suggested, “to make adjustments to the budget” in order to achieve deficit reduction targets.
Belgian economist at United Financial Group, Hughes said: “The Irish government can not achieve economic growth target this year.” London research firm Capital Economics expect: “the next few years, the Irish economy will continue to slump.”
International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the Irish economy will shrink in 2010 by 0.5%, and in 2011 and 2012 increased by 2.3% and 2.5%. However, IMF money Wiener, head of capital markets that Wales, Ireland, Europe will not lead to another debt crisis, the government there is no reason to apply for the euro zone rescue. IMF director of external relations, said Atkinson, 23, the Irish government does not apply to the IMF for assistance.
Irish investors are pessimistic about the prospects for economic recovery, the more worried about the cost of government assistance to state-owned banks will be higher than expected, Lenihan has said the government of the Anglo – Irish Bank assistance costs will not be over 25 billion euros, But analysts expect the bank at least the government inject 35 billion euros, equivalent to 20% of Ireland’s annual GDP.
Eurozone economic recovery, “stall”
The overall situation of economic recovery in the euro area has hit rock bottom. Eurozone Economic Policy Research Centre (CEPR) 24, said the latest data released in the region in September EuroCoin index was 0.34%, lower than August’s 0.37%, for the 6th consecutive month of decline. The indicators used to measure the potential economic growth. Data showed the euro zone economic recovery is slowing.
Data provider Markit23 at London’s September PMI data show that in September the euro zone purchasing managers index of integrated (PMI) fell to 56.2 from the 53.8 in August, a 7-month low; which, in September manufacturing PMI fell to 55.1 from the 53.6 in August, a record low of 8 months; services PMI fell to 55.9 from the 53.6 in August, hit a 7-month low. This means that the euro zone private sector economic growth has dropped to 7 months to the lowest point.
Economists widely expected, as all member states are to implement fiscal austerity and higher taxes and other measures, the euro zone economic growth will slow in the second half. Despite the gloomy prospects for Ireland and Greece, but many economists believe the euro zone economy as a whole double-dip recession is unlikely. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet has also denied that the European economic trends within the different risk argument.
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