Endogenous growth the U.S. economy is weak, the economy remains highly dependent on policy to stimulate. U.S. economic growth in the first half of this year, only 3% (less than 2.2% after adjustment), in the previous cycle of economic recovery are low. In the large-scale fiscal and monetary policy stimulus, the U.S. economy continued to show weakness.

Three different levels of demand slowing. With the policy out of irritation, the U.S. second quarter GDP growth of 1.6% in three quarters of the lowest quarterly growth since. Inventory investment, consumer spending and slow the growth of trade there were signs, of which the contribution of inventory investment by a quarter of 2.64% to 0.63%; personal consumption spending has weakened, contributing 1.38 percentage points; government spending contributed 0.86 percentage points; lower net exports dragged down the most important factor in GDP, the negative pull on the 3.37 percent GDP, the worst in 20 years.

Negative wealth effects are still affecting the U.S. household consumption. U.S. private wealth is very serious. According to Federal Reserve flow of funds report, the second quarter of U.S. households and nonprofit organizations net assets fell from 1500 to 53500 billion U.S. dollars, which reduced household wealth of more than 1 trillion. Wealth severely constrained consumer spending, since the fourth quarter of 2009, U.S. consumption growth in three quarters of the chain were 0.9%, 1.9% and 0.6%, lower than the GDP growth rate from the current situation and U.S. household debt ratio is still not stabilized signs of stabilization.

Financial system on the real economy, “blood” feature is not fully recovered. Federal Reserve policy instruments to help banks clean up almost no defaults and bad debts write-off rate reduction tool, and the Treasury Asset Relief Program to buy banks from the toxic assets first to directly inject capital to the banks, also failed to help banks ease the liquidity pressure banks reluctance to lend serious decline in the incremental credit, banks cash in all of the assets in the proportion from the historical average of 3.2% to 10% of U.S. consumer credit, business loans, real estate mortgage loans are at historically low levels of growth, consumption credit for the fourth consecutive decline for several quarters, the financial system can not really “blood” to realize the resource allocation function of the real economy, it is difficult for the U.S. economy an important reason for self-repair.

“Old prescriptions” are effective for optimism. Since the financial crisis, the Bush administration and the Obama administration implemented a total of 2.2 trillion U.S. dollars of financial rescue plan and the two governments a total of 982 billion U.S. dollars (168 billion U.S. dollars, and Bush Obama 814 billion U.S. dollars) economic stimulus plan, the U.S. economy After a brief recovery, Zai Yu growth in the fog, and even the “second bottom” of risk. September 10 introduced, including businesses, middle-class tax cuts and infrastructure 350 billion U.S. dollars in new economic stimulus package less than half of the last round, policies and policy multiplier diminishing marginal utility, while the negative impact brought about the greatest the fiscal deficit further. Expected, the U.S. budget deficit in fiscal year 2010 about 1.56 trillion U.S. dollars. From 2010 to 2020, total expenditure will reach 44.5 trillion U.S. dollars, than in the past 10 years, 24.5 trillion U.S. dollars surged 82%, which is heavily dependent policy to stimulate the U.S. economy, the future is full of unusual uncertainty.

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