In the recovery’s fragility in the context of the remaining downside risk, the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meeting of the fall of 2010 is a good policy of economic recovery. Future fiscal tightening or relaxing? When tightened? When to relax? Countries in the world, especially the developed countries continue to weigh.

United States: “stimulus” is still the dominant

Recently, the “exit” has been quietly exit the hot topic of the U.S. economy the central and replace it with “stimulus” and “quantitative easing” and other words.

Inadequate because of the economic recovery, unemployment remains high, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said, the greatest economic challenge remains to speed up economic growth. Analysts believe that the U.S. government to achieve this goal, the need to create a relaxed fiscal and monetary policy environment.

In this annual meeting, from all over the world top economic officials and experts generally agreed that, for developed economies, the crisis is not over. President of the International Monetary Fund, Kahn seems some of the major advanced economies, short-term challenges is to achieve accelerated growth, employment creation in the real recovery, so the need for further fiscal stimulus. White House Council of Economic Advisers has just resigned from the post of President of the University of California at Berkeley professor Christina Romer, said that the United States, there is still some room for stimulus.

So far, Obama introduced in February 2009 amounted to 787 billion U.S. dollars the first economic stimulus plan has been largely expenditures. Some experts statistics, this year a new round of fiscal stimulus the U.S. the amount of more than 200 billion U.S. dollars.

Japan: “have to” stop the fall with a positive policy

From the end of August to early October, the Japanese government and central bank have to continue to take a proactive fiscal policy and loose monetary policy, introduced a series of measures to prevent the economic downturn. From September 10 to October 8, the Japanese government economic stimulus measures introduced twice a total of close to 6 trillion yen. In addition, the Japanese Government started from September 15 in Japan and abroad, invested heavily in the foreign exchange market intervention in major currencies, curb the yen appreciation of the momentum.

Bank of Japan on Aug. 30 emergency meeting, decided to open market operations of new capital injection in size from 20 trillion yen to 30 trillion yen. October 5, also announced the implementation of the zero interest rate policy and the creation of funds of 35 trillion yen in the scale of co-guarantee funds to buy government bonds, corporate bonds and other financial assets, to create a more relaxed financial environment, with the government to stop the yen appreciation, to shake off deflation and stimulate economic recovery.

But the current situation, the Japanese government and central bank measures have not achieved the expected results. Japan’s deteriorating fiscal situation, government debt, if the external economic environment, particularly in Europe and America there are no major improvement in the economy, then, possible long-term appreciation of the yen, to solve the problem of deflation will become more difficult. Japanese government and central bank will have to continue to take fiscal and monetary policy.

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