September U.S. consumer confidence fell dramatically. Economists believe that consumer confidence in the recession after the end of the year has not changed, and this downturn is likely to persist down.

Weak U.S. economy, rising consumer confidence is difficult. September consumer confidence survey provided to the people of this view the new evidence.

Private economic research organization in New York Tuesday the Conference Board reported that September’s consumer confidence index fell from August’s 53.2 to 48.5, significantly lower than experts had forecast a 52-53 point. The Conference Board index of consumer confidence reflected in the United States several changes one of the most important index.

Factors affecting consumer confidence

The agency’s Consumer Research Center Lynn Franco told the media that decline is mainly due to the confidence of the business environment and job market situation and recent economic outlook has deteriorated. The index contains index and present situation index is expected to reflect this.

The expectations index fell from 72 August to 65.4, while the present situation index fell to 23.1 from 24.9. Conference Board senior economist Ken Goldsten told VOA that name from the U.S. recession had ended last June, but the consumer confidence index now and then, at the same level. This means that although the end of the year recession, but for consumers, they feel does not change.

Goldstein also reminded people that in the past that stage of economic recovery, consumer optimism will be greatly enhanced. But now, the situation is very different, worthy of research attention.

Goldstein said: “(information index to predict future,) the real danger is not confidence will weaken as the economy continues to significantly decline. The possibility is that this index will remain in the current very low level for a long time . to the end of this year or early next year, the unemployment rate could rise, consumer spending will increase. But consumer confidence in the coming year might not be much change. ”

Goldstein believes that the economy is still recovering, consumer income also increased, companies are still profitable, it will be no major decline in consumer confidence in the future. But the bad news is that, due to weak economic growth, consumer income small, employment opportunities are limited, so consumer confidence can hardly noticeable recovery.

Important factor in the employment situation

From the Conference Board survey, consumer confidence, employment is an important factor in drag. 46.1% of respondents believe that September is very difficult to find work. August survey data obtained was 45.5%. To find those who believe that good people who work only 3.8%, than the August figure of 4% is low.

Month about the future prospects of the job market is not good. Job opportunities that will increase the proportion of people was 14.5%, 14.7% lower than last month’s figures. The job opportunities that will reduce the proportion of people from August to 19.6% to 22.7%.

The recovery of the large repeated

Action Economics chief economist Germany (Mike Englund) has admitted that the economic recession different from any past time. The recovery also has a large repeat. After several collisions, experts and consumers have come to realize this.

Engel Lund told reporters: “People expected recovery as roller coaster ups and downs this year, the actual economic outlook far less dynamic as expected. Beginning of the year, people expect there will be a drop after the strong recovery . But this is clearly not the case. May, June and July data came out, we had just found strength of the recovery is far less strong. ”

Engel Lund said this round of economic recession, consumer confidence slipped in February last year to the lowest point of recession, but also the lowest point ever. However, in addition to the recession, the decline in all other consumer confidence index is the lowest figures for January 47.3,9 also higher than 47.3, it should be said that the current figures reflect the feelings of consumers in a recession.

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