Reproduction of the 2010 Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, the trend rose outside the metal plate, which led the lead, or more than 6%, copper and zinc also rose more than 3%, in particular, copper has now risen to $ 7,950 or more, a great breakthrough in 3000-8000 since 2005 the potential tank top dollar, but also made many optimistic market expectations, so metal prices go compelling.

Technical resistance suggest the importance of U.S. 7900-8000

From a technical perspective, there are two significant features. First, running on the 6000-8000 dollar copper big box, Tandi to $ 7,000 when the central axis of success, naturally expected to challenge the box along the upper edge of $ 8,000, but along the box will play the role of resistance; II is the price of copper since June 8 $ 6,038 5 years running a clear wave structure, press 1 to 3 Xiaolangdi $ 6,038 $ 7,527 top wave calculated from the 0.618 target are 7900-8000 dollars. Based on the above two points, we have been insisting this rise in resistance at 7900-8000 dollars. Meanwhile, according to the trend of the Mid-Autumn outer disk, we found that in the hours of LME copper prices are likely to form the top level diagram deviates from the trend, once the trend away from the top of the formation of up to $ 7,850 down the following objectives.

Implications of three changes

Mid-Autumn Festival from recent data for the period and changes, I believe that there are three points worthy of attention. First, the basic trend of the relationship between metals. From the early performance, the tin is the strongest, followed by copper and nickel, aluminum and the weakest, but the moon rose in the period, a decline of nickel, tin increase is very small, aluminum and lead is the largest increase. Weak performance of the strongest, aluminum is the most sluggish performance of astonishing. Experienced investors are familiar with this phenomenon, when the rapid rise began when the aluminum, copper prices are also facing the top.

Second, Shanghai copper trend. We found that, before the close Mid-Autumn Festival, Shanghai copper and Copper & price ratio down to 7.8 below, while China’s copper imports last month, the rise in copper prices is to promote an important reason. As the largest copper consumer, the recent long-term 8 above parity level of this year down to 7.8 below, or show signs of China’s consumption has weaker, Chinese copper consumers do not agree on the high copper prices.

Third, changes in spot premiums and discounts. Rose during the Mid-Autumn Festival, Copper spot premiums and discounts are also quickly reduced to three levels of water nearby. While the general sense, the change is more positive. But this period did not significantly change in inventory, and observation of tin, nickel and copper premiums and discounts before changes in premiums and discounts from the discount when the stock rose to three months when the water level, often corresponding to the stage of high prices. Thus, in a sense, the level of water also represents a resistance, the price may be blocked in this area.

Supply and demand and inventory of the box pattern recognition

These two are on the campaign tactics of copper, but from a strategic point of view, the critical analysis of copper, copper is the dollar could break through 3000-8000 box, 8000-12000 or higher to form a new box. This fundamental change, in addition to monetary factors, only the changed nature of demand and supply patterns. Compare the current supply and demand patterns and 2005, from the supply point of view, copper is very tight, long-term supply is limited, this has not changed. However, had the global economy to improve, the expected increase in copper consumption, while the current U.S. economic difficulties, has introduced economic stimulus seems to become increasingly difficult to promote economic growth.

Integrated supply and demand side, the copper does not have the break the old box, and create the basis for a new era. In other words, we believe that commodity prices are fluctuating around the value, and value is determined by supply and demand, monetary policy can only make the high valuations of goods, but does not create the commodity bull market, the same can only improve the real economy create a new range of fluctuations in copper prices, economic stimulus will not create a copper bull market, only manufacturing copper foam.

The current metal prices the analysis of the core reasons

Except, of course supply and demand, commodity prices, the other can cause changes in the currency revaluation. This is indeed the core of the recent copper price factors in promoting, the latest statement from the Fed Tuesday, the dollar’s fall contributed to the rise in copper prices during the Mid-Autumn Festival. Fed a firm stand, the dollar Powei directly down, base metals prices. But the dollar index fell from June 7 has been falling for the past 4 months, down huge. So the Fed to continue easing monetary policy may be nothing new impetus will be relatively limited. Another reason to promote the fund is that other commodity prices soaring, especially wheat, cotton and other agricultural products rose. Alarming is the rise in prices of agricultural products, but also directly stimulated the CPI rise, increasing inflationary pressures, the current asymmetry in domestic interest rates and other rumors, once achieved, will have a great impact on copper prices. Therefore, from the rising push factors, the driving force is gradually declining.

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