To seek to “avoid competitive devaluations” consensus, the Group of Twenty (G20) finance ministers gathered last week, South Korea Gyeongju. Surprisingly, enjoy the hegemonic position of the U.S. currency at this meeting talking about currency devaluation, the exchange rate ups and downs aside, the finance minister has proposed Geithner: 2015, G20 countries to current account surplus or proportion of the deficit fell to less than 4% of GDP, the level of countries.

Everyone knows that reducing current account surpluses and deficits by the transfer structure, level three measures of financial and exchange rate adjustments. For China, because a higher proportion of exports to adjust the exchange rate policy measures will be the first choice of the three. It would appear that the United States around a bend, or to force the yuan to rise. , The Chinese Minister of Commerce Chen Deming has said, the dollar issue out of control inflation impact on China.

Puzzle of U.S. spam

Some time ago, the United States led a “rate war”; now, the United States proposed to the current account surplus or deficit does not exceed the proportion dropped to 4% of national GDP, the actual exchange rate is to raise his country, what lies behind?

Manipulating the exchange rate for the United States, domestic and international scholars call “selfish” behavior. The so-called “self-interest”, is the United States through quantitative easing monetary policy, lowering long-term interest rates. And this interest has led to all the U.S. financial assets, including real estate market index rate, housing loan rate. That is, all U.S. financial assets to long-term benchmark interest rate target rate.

U.S. long-term benchmark interest rate is lower down the U.S. interest rate long-term assets, interest rate equal to return on assets, prompting the U.S. short-term assets is relatively cheap, as the U.S. and global economy in the future as well as the formation of the next round of funds lag the competition, and create a competitive advantage . For example, emerging and developing markets are the U.S. financial bubble to inflate, the United States to raise interest rates and capital can be reversed to “shearing” effect, or by means of inflation to “shearing” effect, inflation can be achieved wealth transfer purposes.

As a major industrial countries and China is different from the United States has the financial power. Manipulating exchange rates to the United States to achieve?

The United States has its own set of manipulating the exchange rate rule, when the rose, when the down control very easily. Since the “Bretton Woods” to the present, the exchange rate of the wrist to cast the United States has not been stopped, including the debt crisis of the times in Europe, I think it is a crisis in the United States control. Therefore, the dollar exchange rate manipulation has become the two major strategies: that is, U.S. policy cycle and the economic cycle and the dollar supply and monetary policy strategy.

From the above two strategies to display their specific situation, can be analyzed through four stages. Since 2007 the global financial and economic evolution, and now can be divided into four stages: First stage of the crisis worse. This stage is from September 2008 to early 2009, the typical collapse of Lehman Brothers, the U.S. set off a chain reaction global financial market turmoil; second stage of the financial rebound. From March 2009 to 10 at the end of 2009, which is the Federal Reserve started easing monetary policy, global economic rebound in the recovery phase; Third, the early stage of the financial turmoil. Characteristic is reflected in the debt crisis in Europe’s financial risk, from mid 2009 to June 2010, is the debt crisis in Europe, Goldman Sachs and international debt crisis set off large-scale investment in the euro short period. During this period of financial market, the dollar began to display their fists, the use of “low port property” and to attract capital back home periodically to balance the balance sheet. Five European countries during this period the debt ratio is much lower than the deficit of the United States and Japan, and why the debt crisis took place in Europe? While the euro’s own monetary and fiscal policies are not uniform structural defects exist, but the final analysis or by the United States detonated the first strategy, in particular, the force formed by Wall Street, with the S & P speculative capital and the international market panic, debt the spread of the crisis situation with lightning speed throughout Europe; Fourth, the late stage of the financial turmoil. Feature is the start of quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States currency risk occurs from June 2010 to the present, but typical approach is to force China to raise the exchange rate.

The U.S. economy has not fully recovered, and the dollar hedging, and gradually lost and can not find the United States in the direction of the real economy, it will set off through the turmoil in financial markets to obtain their own interests.

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