Commodity Currencies Become Major Banks Favorite
Ireland set off by the debt crisis, an upgraded version of Europe, the euro once again under strong selling pressure. Citigroup has recently released a report urging customers to reduce the appreciation of the euro against the dollar bet. However, the bank highlighted the continued bullish commodity currencies.
Including Greg? Anderson, an analyst at Citigroup, including 24 released a report that the bank had proposed to do the euro against the dollar, but the overall investment portfolio for the long dollar positions against the euro dropped to zero. Citigroup also said it would maintain the overall portfolio Australian, Canadian and New Zealand and other commodity currencies will rise in the bet.
24, U.S. economic data show that early last week, jobless claims fell to its lowest level in more than two years, which suggests that the economy appears close to the self-sustaining recovery. Supported by the news, the market risk preference to light again, on the international crude oil rose. As the trend of commodity currencies and commodity prices are usually proportional to the good growth prospects for the future revaluation of commodities to provide support. Bank of America, Merrill Lynch analysts in a report that the bank expects international crude oil demand in 2011 will be climbed to new highs, coupled with lower financing costs, the international oil price per barrel will be expected to exceed a high of 100 dollars.
The financial operations of the central bank official said it would absorb the Canadian currency as one of Russia’s foreign exchange reserves. The official said the Russian central bank has recently started to invest in Canadian dollar-denominated assets, the amount is very low so far, but the future may increase. And is also considering joining the Australian currency reserve assets of configuration possibilities. It also highlights the hot commodity currencies.
In all the commodity currencies, Citigroup analysts have their strong preference for the currency. “We believe that risk preferences may start to rise, we should be holdings of commodity money,” Anderson wrote, “of which we are most optimistic about the Canadian dollar.”
24th session, the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar touched $ 0.9909, to November 16 the highest; against the euro hit 0.7431 euros, for the 21 September to the highest. Analysts said the strong fundamentals within Canada, 23 published data show that the unexpected jump in inflation, retail sales were solid performance, which suggests that the Canadian dollar will rise further. In addition, trade between Canada and the United States has a close economic and other relations, the Canadian dollar will also benefit from a good U.S. economic data.
Compared to the favored commodity currencies, the dollar and the euro in these currencies, “boss” it appears more vulnerable. JPMorgan thinks the dollar will decline against the euro, mainly due to debt reduction measures to the United States and other regions of the central bank to raise interest rates.
Royal Bank of Scotland also said the European Central Bank to reduce bank liquidity support for the move, is that tend to worsen the debt crisis in the region, asking it to change its monetary policy stance will likely pressure the euro Zoubian. “The tough stance being re-ignite the euro debt crisis,” the currency strategist in Sydney this week, Greg Gibbs said in a research report, “The market will be the financial crisis in Europe and the European Central Bank’s policy to reproduce more and more closely linked to implementation of the European Central Bank easing the pressure is also growing, are also increasing downward pressure on the euro. ”
So far this month, Canadian, Australian and New Zealand rate of exchange rate movements against the U.S. dollar rose 0.58%, respectively, down 0.88% and down 1.26%, Bloomberg tracked in the sixteen non-US currencies were ranked first, first Five third seven.
For the operation of the market outlook, analysts said the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar fell to $ 0.9800 at the occasion of a good bargain-hunting, and stops at $ 0.9860 at the top began to increase. Once the New Zealand dollar exchange rate fell below the key level of $ 0.7580, then fell to a low of $ 0.7560. Canadian dollar exchange rate against the U.S. dollar support at $ 1.0090.
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