Used to think that this should be the economic stimulus plan around the world out of the year, but in fact many countries this year, but had made the second stimulus package, including the United States, QE2, which showed the U.S. economy may not be as we first thought of being out of the recession. In this context, how to understand the trend of the U.S. economy next? Or, when the real economy out of recession?

The second round of fiscal stimulus is unlikely to recent introduction (on a fiscal stimulus worth up to 800 billion U.S. dollars), because Republicans and Democrats in some areas is unlikely to reach a consensus, In addition, we have some financial difficulties, because deficit has been great, can not afford further fiscal stimulus; monetary policy, the Federal Reserve last week also issued a QE2, which total 600 billion U.S. dollars of treasury bonds to buy, but the QE2 is a simple monetary policy stimulus.

QE2 is still the effect of all disputes, the international monetary system, the Fed has injected too much liquidity, which may have significant side effects, time will tell. Indeed, this is a special period of special measures. Entirely in the way of quantitative easing measures to enhance competitiveness in American history is rarely used.

From now, two rounds of the stimulus is a relatively large side, first round of stimulation is effective, but the results did not achieve the desired level. However, the correction effect on the U.S. economy, but not one hundred percent understand thoroughly, because this is a very great economic corrective action. U.S. interest rates fell straight from the first day 1980, the U.S. government at all levels including the public sector or the private sector and U.S. consumers have borrowed too much money, so I hope only one or two years time, over the past 30 years will be able to rectify the impact of borrowing, is not realistic.

Continuous depreciation of the dollar recently, which the U.S. dollar in the international economic structure in the past, the role and status are different, this means that the U.S. dollar want to give up the position as an international currency, in exchange for U.S. economic recovery, but a definite phenomenon is the constant depreciation of the dollar, while the United States also hopes the appreciation of the RMB, that is, the international monetary system is changing, the U.S. dollar as the currency of the United States and an international reserve currency. In the past four or five decades, this system is effective, but in the next four or five years, as the rise of China and India rise, the situation may change, which seems to pound in the previous position is high, Now its importance is declining, the reason is similar.

U.S. interest rates is close to zero, and the dollar as the yen has been told before, has become the carry trade of the tools that the status of the dollar and the U.S. economy would be affected, do not want to see the dollar arbitrage situation, this position against the U.S. dollar and the U.S. economy is negative, in such a pattern, Los Angeles, it is not difficult to grasp the economic and policy toward the next step is really very difficult to predict the future of the U.S. economy as a whole direction, but we can make a difference is whether all of the companies can provide a more powerful development environment, how to be more efficient.

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