G20 Summit Reflects the Change in Economic Structure
The current world is rid of the old economic pattern, tilted to the emerging markets, but not synchronize the political, so in the face of important issues, countries are still difficult to reach consensus.
Held recently in Seoul, 20 countries summit to confirm this. The immediate risk is that, due to lack of policy coordination, purely by market forces to correct global imbalances, has become particularly difficult.
And because market forces can not resolve the issue of RMB exchange rate, European politicians can not help by means of force to promote adjustment of tariffs, import barriers must therefore increased.
Cornell University professor, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution EswarPrasad said: “It is commonly thought, G20 and promote cooperation in the correct global economic imbalances have been stretched to the limit.” He pointed out that, due to stagnation in developed economies, emerging economies the rapid growth of the body, so you want to coordinate national policy becomes more difficult.
Prasad said: “In an increasingly integrated global economy, emerging economies play an important role in the environment, domestic policy effects will spread to overseas easily lead to conflict.”
Can be seen from the summit in Seoul that conflict.
G20 group of emerging economies blasted the Federal Reserve Board (Fed) policy of quantitative easing; and Barack Obama faced high domestic unemployment low growth, then urges faster appreciation for the U.S. manufacturing decompression.
But in the world economy, the United States has apparently not so mass response of the past.
At first called the U.S. Treasury could easily finance ministers sat together a few large countries, exchange rates and trade positions of major adjustments, but the days are now gone.
In many emerging economies, policy makers in the eyes of the prestige and credibility of the United States has been due to the global financial crisis is no longer complete.
United States to take the ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policy almost destroyed confidence in the dollar. Even a former U.S. Treasury World Bank President Robert Zoellick have to sit still. He said last week that the time to consider the establishment of a new monetary system.
So the United States urged repeatedly try keep on RMB appreciation is not surprising. In Seoul, the U.S. strategy of indirect pressure on China to also run into a wall, and the United States called for the establishment of current account surpluses and deficits have not been quantified targets to support the proposal.
Adhere to the consistent stand of the Chinese President Hu Jintao, stressed that the G20 summit will be a gradual appreciation of the RMB, shall be without prejudice to the fundamental interests of China, then again in APEC summit reiterated this point.
StewartPatrick U.S. Council on Foreign Relations, said the Fed intends to invest 600 billion U.S. dollars market to buy bonds program, Obama has recently weakened the prestige of the summit.
In addition, Obama belongs to the Democratic Party in the mid-term congressional elections in frustration, Yiling countries questioned its ability to achieve the commitment of the international community. Patrick said: “People on the U.S. leadership’s confidence in the global economy continue to weaken.”
In sharp contrast is, G20 commended the efforts of developing countries such as Brazil, Yin Baxi implementation of capital controls to prevent capital inflows to avoid further pushed up the exchange rate.
Until recently, such control measures or the United States and the International Monetary Fund hated.
In addition, G20 summit formally approved the IMF reform, to emerging economies more voting power in IMF, which also proves the rise of national identity in developing countries.
Overall, the G20 summit on the emerging economies is a victory.
But the G20 summit in Seoul that there was no contribution to correct economic imbalances, which indicates that the G20 in the face of the limitations of urgent crisis. JP Morgan economists point out that the current difference between trade and inflation trends, policy coordination is not brought, but the conflict.
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