Once the weaker demand in Germany, while China and the U.S. market has not really started, when a large PV manufacturers in China will be in trouble.

After having been through the industry recession in 2008, no one can imagine the demand for solar cells is so hot in this year. However, the future is to continue strong growth market in the end, or sadly declined a final conclusion yet.

Assuming the European Photovoltaic subsidies retreat, while China and the U.S. market is unable to fill these vacancies may be in a very long time, the solar industry will be hovering in the low-speed stage.

German market in future because

No one questioned the German market very attractive, but there are pessimists believe that the prospects and looking great.

In fact, the end of 2009, German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s energy spokesman for the solar market in 2010 made a plan: In the year to slash Germany’s solar subsidies. The German government did were on the ground this year, farm subsidies and industrial use of solar energy, drastically for 20% to 23% reduction. More worrisome is that Germany may continue to cut such subsidies in the next year, falling levels may reach 13%.

In addition, Germany’s solar power grid because of the arrival of the load will be exposed to enormous challenges.

This year the total global installed solar capacity is about 15G watts, Germany accounted for nearly half of the ratio. Compared to last year, Germany’s installed capacity doubled. If this situation continues, so that by 2013, Germany’s newly installed capacity could reach as much as 30G-watt, grid stability and security will be a fiasco.

At present, solar energy storage technology is not very place. Thus, even if a family has installed solar roofs during the day and electricity is very adequate, but does not enjoy in the evening, so it needs to collect all the solar power grid on the backbone of Germany received Caixing. In addition, at night, the family or by an ordinary power grid in order to turn on the lights, water and watch TV.

If a family has both solar energy, and installed a common network, then when its high proportion of solar energy when the instantaneous flow of electricity, the power may be the problem too large or too small, home refrigerators, air conditioners and other products suffered the embarrassment of a sudden power outage.

Demand may decline in the German situation, Italy, France, Spain and other places may also still have a certain demand for PV, but they can not count on it.

In 2009, Spain, Italy, Greece and other installations are 500 MW, 451 MW and 145 MW. This year the debt crisis in Greece, while Spain and other European countries will be the impact of subsidy cuts in Germany, while reducing its subsidy share.

In short, Germany’s market capacity is limited, the development of photovoltaic industry can not continue indefinitely. Once the demand in Germany weakened, while the United States and China market is not really to start, then, China will be a huge photovoltaic manufacturers may face big trouble.

China does not start

Want to start the solar market in China is not afraid of things can be resolved shortly. Whether Suntech Holdings, CSI Artes, or Solarfun, JA and other solar manufacturers are well aware of the Chinese market is the world’s largest solar market. But it was also agreed that domestic policy is now encouraging solar power is far less than wind power, nuclear power. Wind power more than 50% per year expansion of the market size is based on the rapid development of domestic wind farms, but the doubling of domestic sales of solar cells, it mainly depends on the needs of Europe.

In China, although the Government has introduced a subsidy is expected to total 100 billion yuan of “Golden Sun Project”, “Solar Roofs Plan” and other policies, but these projects also limited demonstration project. Less due to the project, and may encourage investors regardless of the cost of the discount bid, leading to both negative: one misconception that China does not need the government to subsidize the instantaneous PV industry can start to expect more future The financial support will be difficult; Second, some items or to seek cost savings and cutting corners, which would give the government more careful in future release projects.

Worrying still, China’s industrial enterprises in the blind pursuit of expansion at the expense of technology. For example, the same type of battery components, lower costs due to China, the U.S. and Europe and other local companies will join forces in their respective Depan, through anti-dumping, countervailing and other means to combat the export of Chinese products.

The Chinese assume that no cost is moderate, and high-end technology leader in the battery, the future United States and Europe and other local producers will choose to relocate their production lines to China, then the advantages of Chinese companies will be bankrupt.

Moreover, China’s photovoltaic equipment is also very backward. LDK Solar LDK’s a technical expert Mr. Liu told the newspaper, the field of thin film battery, a silicon deposited on glass to form the transparent conductive oxide semiconductor layer, special ceramic reaction chamber are also from abroad imports.

Therefore, the future of photovoltaic industry, there are more market uncertainty: neither too much hopes on the maturity of the market around the same time, the eyes should not be placed entirely on the expansion of production. Companies still need to develop high quality, high conversion efficiency and lower cost battery technology. Only through a better grasp of the technology to produce better products, they are not in competition, “Red Sea” was submerged.

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Category: Business Management
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