After the financial crisis, the overall world economy this year warmer, “double dip” is no longer possible. October 6, International Monetary Fund (IMF) is expected in 2010, “Global economic growth of 4.8%.” Now it seems that the United States, Europe, Japan and the three major economies have different levels of economic growth, the U.S. was 2.6%; the euro area 1.7%; Japan about 1%. Rapid economic development of developing countries, especially Asian economies “has been sitting in the driver’s position,” the projected economic growth of 7.1%. As the “strong rebound in exports” and “dynamic demand,” as the leader of the Chinese economy is expected to reach 10.5%, India up to 9.4%. HSBC economist Michael Geoghegan that “the future depends on” civet six countries – Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa … …

From 1 January to 19 August, the Jakarta stock index rose 21%, beyond all the “BRIC” The benchmark index is expected to grow its GDP growth rate of about 6%. Charles, president of the International Monetary Dare China that the world economic stage, only play a leading role by the United States and Europe, the time is gone, China, Brazil, India and Mexico and other developing countries will play a greater role. November, G20 and APEC summit in Seoul, South Korea has held in Yokohama, Japan, the two meetings of the increasing financial supervision, to avoid competitive devaluations, vigilance dangerous world economic imbalances, oppose trade protectionism and the establishment of the Asia-Pacific free trade issues were discussed and made some consensus.

However, the current world economic situation is still grave difficulties in piles, tackle the backlog. International Monetary Fund pointed out that in recent months, the process of global financial stability reversal, the market remains much uncertainty … … these are still the enemy of economic recovery. OPEC Secretary General Badri recently said the world economic slowdown is likely to continue into next year. International community that the slowdown in world economic recovery, and the trend of imbalance, instability, not optimistic.

This is mainly because:

First, as the source of the financial crisis the United States, is the barometer of world economic recovery. So far four major challenges that still exist. First, budget deficits soaring. “The deadline to September 30, 2010 fiscal year, the U.S. budget deficit up to record 1.47 trillion U.S. dollars.” Obama exclaimed the United States is facing a “fragile financial situation.” Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned that the U.S. economy this constitutes a “real and growing threat.” Second, the government debt increased, within the United States now accounts for 87% of GDP, significantly more than 60% of the red line. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet is expected end of this year, the U.S. government debt will increase by up to 45%. Third, the real estate market downturn, property prices down. June 6 this year, “Fannie Mae” and “Freddie Mac” was forced to withdraw from the market, the “two rooms” which tumbled nearly 40% of the share price dropped a dollar less shocking. Fourth, high unemployment rate has remained at 9.5% or more. Recently, the Federal Reserve to implement the second round of the quantitative easing policy, intended to further recovery of the economy and increase employment opportunities, fear of hard work.

G20 summit in Seoul, the resolution is not much surprises, does not leave a history. More historical influence, in fact, the importance of the United States decreased significantly. Clinton as U.S. president to attend a similar conference is often an hour late for no reason, other people have to wait for him. This time, Obama attended the meeting more time, more polite, but now no longer determine whether people will be waiting for him.

Second, a serious debt crisis in Europe. “Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and other countries sovereign debt to a rare level.” Greece, a country only needs hundreds of billions of euros in financial assistance. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet is expected, since the end of the euro area member states more than the 2007 government debt levels will rise 20 percentage points. This will dampen global economic recovery is the culprit. Former World Bank chief economist, Nobel laureate in economics Joseph Stiglitz said, “crunch” sweeping the European continent, this may not restore the damage to the fragile economic recovery in Europe … … and even lead to secondary depression .

Third, the employment situation is grim in Europe and America and other developed countries. April 28, Spain “Le Monde”, said the number of unemployed in Europe up to 2300 people, 5 times a year ago, in which young people under the age of 25 accounted for 20%, the highest in Europe and Spain reached 44.5%. In addition, the U.S. unemployment rate has been above 9.5%, Japan 5%.

Fourth, the “currency war” hurt the world. As the U.S. dollar against major world currencies continue to weaken, the depreciation of a global race to “exchange rate war” is ongoing. This ignited the U.S. dollar to promote the “currency war”, mainly because the United States urgently needs its “international obligations.” The Fed will inject 600 billion U.S. dollars in the decision, causing strong opposition around the world. In the G20 summit, met with representatives of the United States lashed out. They generally believe that “his sickness, and let others take medicine” approach does not help. World Bank President Robert Zoellick that the exchange rate will increase the tension caused by the global “overall sensitivity of” unilateral approach threaten global stability. He said the growing friction in the global exchange rate situation, the recent food price rises again to bear the weight of some developing countries. According to data released by FAO, since July, international wheat prices rose by 60% -80%, corn prices by about 40%.

Fifth, the large private capital flows to emerging markets trouble. International Institute reports that this year private capital flows to emerging markets will increase by 41.9%, reaching 825 billion U.S. dollars, of which 214 billion U.S. dollars into Latin America. Expected to reach 833 billion U.S. dollars next year. This may become a growing worldwide “tense” causes.

Economists around the world 2011 world economic development trends are not optimistic, generally agreed that although the world economy continues to recover, but still unstable, unbalanced, especially in the United States in 2010, “printed drafts” save the market, the dollar will further depreciation of the currency caused the world war. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said that due to regional development imbalances, high unemployment and failed to boost private consumption, government withdrawal from the slump caused by the stimulus situation, prospects for global economic growth has recently become dark and strong growth in the field of employment The possibility seems very small. Expected U.S. economic growth rate in 2011 was 2.2%, euro-zone countries was 1.7%, Japan 1.7%.

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