U.S. Dollar Around Irrigation Will Continue to Fall
Fed (U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman) Ben Bernanke, in its “quantitative easing” means behind, but also hides the real appreciation of the RMB against the U.S. force of meaning. The initiative in this battle is not the Chinese government, unless Beijing to significantly relax the tolerance of domestic inflation. Obviously, this is impossible. China’s central bank has said inflation risks in the future overall control, but price pressures “can not be ignored.” China’s central bank said in its quarterly monetary policy report, since the second quarter this year, the market downturn on the real concerns about economic growth, rapid decline, but the upward pressure on prices still need to remain vigilant.
According to the Chinese central bank report, the current Chinese economy is still relatively relaxed monetary and credit environment. Data can be seen from the public, although overall monetary and credit gradually return to normal, but growth is still not low. China’s central bank data released earlier, 9 the end of broad money growth of 19.0% over the same period, although the growth rate down, but still higher than in 2000 -2008 the average level of 16.3%. At this point, if the world’s major developed economies, further implementation of the “quantitative easing” policy, is bound to promote the international commodity prices, inflation pressures in China next year, not light.
Fed is expected to market its “quantitative easing” policy to pay at least 500 billion U.S. dollars, these funds is likely to get into the higher income growth and higher asset prices in emerging markets expected the dollar to around irrigation will continue to fall. Asia, Latin America’s emerging market economies, even if the introduction of capital controls and other measures, large capital inflows and the appreciation of their currencies against the U.S. dollar, almost escape the.
According to “The Wall Street Journal” reported that many portfolio managers have been betting in Indonesia, Malaysia and South Korea currency proceeds. If the government allows, but also the appreciation of their currencies more. This year in August, when Bernanke was first issued more liberal policy signals, the Australian dollar since the August 26 start against the U.S. dollar more than 11%. And recently, the Australian dollar since 1983 is the first time since floating the dollar equivalent.
Beijing, eager to stabilize prices on, it may fuel the recent international food commodity prices performance. It is estimated that over the next 10 years, China’s annual grain demand may reach 573 million tons, higher than the current yield. Mainly boosted by strong demand in China, the Chicago market, soybean prices have climbed to 14 months, the highest level since; Malaysia Derivatives Exchange Palm oil prices this week broke through the previous 27-month peak; Thai rice prices are also approximate six-month high of … …
From media reports in China this year to see hot spots, reporters on the sale of supermarket cooking oil, sugar and other daily food abnormal attention. It is reported that, since the prices this month after more than food rose 10% to 13%. Right now, including corn, wheat, garlic, green beans and sugar, including changes in food prices has become one of the main talk of the town. Food is food inflation rate calculated in Beijing, the basket of goods accounted for about one-third the weight. Although China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported in September last CPI (consumer price index) is far below the 3.6% hit in early 2008, the 12-year high of 8.7%, but the rise in food prices have returned to the then high.
So far, the central government still insist on using market means to deal with prices. According to reports, the relevant departments have reserve auction millions of tons of grain, vegetable oil and cotton. Meanwhile, the regulatory authorities reiterated that there will be speculators in the market to implement heavy fines. But we all remember, two years ago, when high food prices rise, end up having to Beijing on food, edible oil, meat, milk and eggs implementation limit. After a year spent, but also hit the global financial crisis, was able to abolish price controls.
Needless to say, Beijing’s stance on inflation is firm. The first time in three years after China’s central bank to raise interest rates, some of it is also aimed to ease rising prices to the general negative impact of the Chinese people. But when the Americans to save themselves while “quantitative easing”, fried dike drain, Chinese prices and how asset prices are not guaranteed to be hot money flooded? I need to find life buoy.
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