Recently, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Fangchuhualai, the U.S. unemployment rate may need five years to return to normal levels, the second round of the quantitative easing monetary policy may be higher than the actual size of 600 billion U.S. dollars. His words, the market came one exclaimed: QE3 to come?

Throughout the recent economic situation and U.S. policy responses, the market of such conjecture reasonable. Recently, whenever bad U.S. economic data appeared when Bernanke will always come forward. A month ago, when the predicted second bottom of the voice of the U.S. economy growing, the Bernanke against all the odds, restart the 600 billion U.S. dollars of the quantitative easing policy in order to revitalize the U.S. economy. This time Mr Bernanke may be to expand the scale of the conversation to buy government bonds, the U.S. unemployment rate rose to the occasion of the “terrible” new height.

3 December, the Labor Department released data show that in November the United States added only 39,000 jobs, not only far lower than in October amended 172 000, also significantly lower than the market had expected 16 million months. At the same time, the U.S. unemployment rate rose in November to 9.8% in April this year the highest level since.

Worsening employment situation in the United States case, Bernanke once again come forward to “fire”, can be described as due diligence. But it seems that the U.S. economy, “firefighter” less one, in the course of the economic crisis, the absence of U.S. fiscal policy increasingly. Delays in introduction of tax cuts, deficit reduction policy has disappeared.

In fact, the economic crisis, the best economic policies are often two-pronged approach of monetary policy and fiscal policy. The two can complement each other, but also promote each other. However, the current U.S. monetary policy seems to favor, blindly expect Bernanke “go it alone.”

Although it continued to ease monetary policy, Bernanke’s speech, can boost market confidence. But the market performance of the moment and do not represent a fundamental improvement in the U.S. economy. U.S. Department of Commerce released the latest factory orders data show that removal of the volatile transportation orders a product, in October the U.S. factory orders actually fell 0.2%. Coupled with the high unemployment rate in November, these data indicate that the U.S. real economy in poor recovery.

Bernanke also acknowledged that the current U.S. economic recovery may not have the self-sustainability. He said that the unemployment rate remain high for a long time the possibility of landslide risk is the economy is once again the main source.

Credit Suisse in the Dec. 3 report that, with the QE2 been subject to dispute, the Fed’s “nightmare” will be the inflation “blowout” at the same time there is no improvement in wages and economic growth. In that case, QE3 expected to get any support, people will cries of a policy to promote output and employment.

Currently, the Obama administration with the Fed’s monetary policy needed to implement a series of financial policies to promote economic recovery. But after the midterm elections, Congress divided the deadlock so that the Obama administration shelved a number of fiscal policy.

Tax cuts is one. Republicans hope that a permanent extension of George the Bush administration launched a comprehensive tax policy to stimulate consumption and reduce unemployment. Obama and congressional Democratic leaders want to extend the tax cuts only for the middle class, while the annual income of more than 250,000 U.S. dollars of the rich are no longer tax cuts, saying the tax reduction would afford the state finance.

According to the U.S. legislative process, tax policy and other important issues should be, respectively, both houses of Congress, the Senate and House of Representatives vote.

House of Representatives voted on December 2 on the American middle class tax cuts permanent extension of the motion, while the U.S. high-income tax cuts enjoyed by extension is not adopted. December 4 Senate permanent extension of tax cuts for middle-class discussion and the motion to vote, due to the obstruction of the Republican Party, did not meet the requirements adopted by 60 votes. Analysts believe that the Republican and Democratic parties on this issue will continue to game, how to implement tax cuts are still unknown.

Complex political situation in the United States, resulting in the Obama administration’s fiscal policy can not be successful and timely introduction. The important task of the economic crisis more pressure on Bernanke’s body. However, analysts believe that the current Fed has lowered interest rates to historic lows, but still unable to effectively stimulate the economy, monetary policy has little room for choice. In addition, the use of monetary policy to stimulate the positive effects of economic recovery are limited, and the possible negative effects of inflation and so difficult to measure.

Bernanke’s “one-man show” I’m afraid will be very difficult to sing for long. In this case, to make the U.S. economy continues to recover, the government must first make up for the Obama differences between the two parties fight for favorable financial policies to stimulate economic recovery soon, and not expect Bernanke to start again the printing press.

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