Pounds belong to European currencies, most of the movements by the European economic data on the impact of this year, the largest of its bad debt crisis in the event that the euro zone, but with the implementation of the coalition government’s determination on the debt reduction plan, and the high level of UK CPI interest rate increase is expected to lead to warming, the perfect turn around the pound and won rebound.

A deficit of £ Sa month involving the sovereign rating depreciated over 7% of emergency

Year, subject to the deteriorating euro zone debt crisis drag on, the British forced the huge size of government debt exposure in front of investors. As major trading partners – the EU leg to stand on, demand weak, the United Kingdom’s export situation is serious to curb the government’s source of income, only the main means of financial sector, but in the face of many countries around the euro zone may be insolvent the bleak reality UK banks hold a large number of relevant national debt, are also facing the danger of losing, and further evolved into the Government’s burden, liquidity tensions, anti need to rely on government funding for mitigation, policy making bank nationalization in 2008 Britain’s budget deficit rose sharply in fiscal year ,2009-2010, the UK deficit has reached an alarming level of 167 billion pounds, becoming the most serious since World War II the United Kingdom level, large-scale rescue of banks behavior, more so the British government debt reached 60% of GDP, revenues and expenditures of the serious imbalance has affected the UK’s sovereign credit rating. The so-called British Government “Phnom Penh” debt, the market has also been questioned, the financial position of the United Kingdom has been so bad, and the attraction of overseas it? Such huge debts, pay what is the last person who?

In this context, the pound since the beginning of the opening to 3 months, the depreciation of more than 7%, while the weak economic data, it is the pound pull in the abyss, in the fourth quarter of 2009, GDP growth turned positive in the situation just in 2010, the first quarter GDP growth rate slowed down again, suggesting fragility of the recovery. In addition, the British economy dilemma, on the one hand, cuts in government spending, will force the recovery of stagnation, but continued to support the economy in deficit but a vicious cycle. Heavy blow, making the £ 1.50 mark the next break.

£ 2 joint administration of the Government reducing the burden of containing bottomed

£ poor performance, not only have lost the confidence of investors, hedge funds have become the prey, the much selling. The intensification of internal and external problems and eventually become a pretext for political change, the public discontent on the economy, and in the month of April -5 climax Brown resign urgent need to stimulate the rise of risk aversion, the pound fell to 1.4230 area. Under pressure, Brown on May 11 announced his resignation as prime minister, Conservative leader David Cameron and the successor to the Liberal Democratic Party formed a coalition government, which turned off to save the British economy.

Coalition government took office just a year it announced a 6 billion pounds deficit reduction plan, also announced that the reform of government departments to further save money. Practical action on the debt reduction plan, the new government will be necessary to pass the determination, the British initiative to prevent the deterioration of the positive attitude deficit crisis boosted investor confidence. Besides the improvement of economic data, but also alleviate the previous pessimism on the prospects for recovery, May manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 15 year highs once again, to accelerate growth in new orders, export orders increased for 9 consecutive months, suggesting that domestic demand warming and the export situation, pound has finally been successful to stop selling warm and build a stage on the bottom in late May. With European and American stock markets higher, pound out the best of bad news, and gradually from year lows. Early June, the pound break through the bottom of the range of the resistance platform, stand on top 1.4550, which started bottomed.

3 CPI high interest rates push up the pound is expected to supply the data ascribed to the strong

Strong economic data and high level of consumer price index repeated help, try to promote a new high on the pound. In mid-June, the Bank of England said that as the spare capacity did not have a huge downward pressure on inflation, the Bank of England may be forced to abandon the “highly expansionary” monetary policy and raise interest rates in the second quarter. Published with the June consumer price index increase of 3.2% per annum, the UK’s second quarter, the average annual rate of inflation reached 3.5%, well above the central bank’s target of 3.3%, for a time, ahead of the Bank of England may be the end of quantitative easing policy expected to rise, the pound rose homeopathy, then announced a series of beautiful economic data, more rate hike adds unlimited reverie.

The second quarter of this year, the United Kingdom increased by 1.6% annual GDP, the highest maximum growth rate of 4 years, strong economic performance proved that the sustainability of the UK economic recovery momentum. Into July, the retail sales index surged from 6 to 33 months of -5, as in April, the highest level, which shows once again that the UK economy is gradually getting better, while the Ministry of Finance has also launched a series of proposed tax reform package , but also boosted investor confidence, in this context, the pound break through 1.5500 of the platform, in early August to return to near 1.6000.

Although the Bank of England in August -9 months of interest rate decisions remains low interest rates unchanged, market exit extinguished the enthusiasm of the quantitative easing policy, so there taking sterling rally, but compared to the weak U.S. economic data British industrial output and manufacturing purchasing managers index for the strong performance, or ultimately to promote a new round of ascribed the pound, with the manufacturing PMI in October rose to the highest since July, the pound in the November 4 test 1.6300 .

4 better than the euro-zone economic side below the rebound can be expected 1.5300

Sterling hit a high point, the involvement of the suppression of the Irish debt crisis, profit-taking, short-term pressure down, but step by step implementation of the debt relief initiatives, the pound, is the most favorable supportive. The moment, the British Government to maintain growth, improve the financial structure of periodic effective policy measures, although subject to a certain degree of economic growth weakened, but the overall operating environment are protected.

The current implementation of the new Bank of England likely to quantitative easing policy has been almost zero, CPI to remain high, raising interest rates is only a matter of time. Although the road is still very difficult future debt relief, while countries outside the euro area of credit risk, it was not completely eliminated, making the UK financial system to continue under the exposure to risk exposure, but better than expected performance of the coalition government has reduced the UK face political risks, and enhance the success of the UK to lift the debt crisis of confidence, compared to the euro area troubled debt assistance program is obviously more uncertain fundamentals of the UK.

From £ on the figure, the most important remains in the 1.6000/50 resistance area, if they can not stand this important psychological barrier, this area will be a clear signal of a downward trend, then the period of any ascribed, will be as is selling the opportunity to be around £ re back to 1.5300, the pound is a new opportunity to do more, then the target is expected to return to near 1.6500. Disk indicators show that the recent rebound kinetic energy of less than sterling, the Christmas holidays, a greater chance of bias finished lower.

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