Euro Area Facing Serious Challenges
Outlook 2011, global economic and financial outlook, the European debt crisis is one of the core of the keywords. European debt crisis will not just be Europe’s crisis, but lingering fog on the global economy. Not see the prospect of European debt crisis, to see clearly the global economy and financial system of the future.
Serious challenges facing the euro area
Looking to the future moment of the euro area, we have measured from three aspects, first of all euro area banks to the European Central Bank liquidity support there is much dependence; followed by our private sector domestic demand continued to economic recovery how much confidence the contribution; then there can master the control of inflation levels.
Since June 2010, the European Central Bank has gradually reduced the size Qiangzai financing to mid-November, has dropped from 881 billion euros to 5100 million euros; the third quarter to support the gradual withdrawal of unconventional measures, one-year and six month period does not renew a new long-term refinancing. Money market conditions in Europe are also warming, the amount of inter-bank lending has been restored to the level before August 2007, while the European Central Bank to withdraw some liquidity measures have prompted national inter-bank lending rates close to the policy requirements of the European banking system re- Back to the important step in the framework before the crisis. Euro area economic activity is gradually restored. EUROSTAT statistics show that in the third quarter GDP growth in the second quarter on the basis of 1% and 0.4% increase over the same period. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and the European Council of Commerce survey results show in October the European industry and services showed a sustained growth momentum. Labor market stability, income good.
However, the financial crisis and the euro, the euro zone economy left many serious challenges, some challenges are unprecedented, and some of the challenges that exist in this crisis expanded. Therefore, we should increase the pace of reform and the euro area economic governance, especially related to supervision of financial and macroeconomic policy reforms.
Eurozone government deficit in 2011 will reach 6.6% share of GDP, higher than the previous forecast of 6.1%. National budgets to reduce the existing social security system and the impact of the tax system, 2009-2010 and fiscal stimulus plan to expand the impact of GDP totaled 2.3% unexpected decrease in profits, asset depreciation and cost cutting led to the production grew increasingly less so, are the next major challenge facing the euro zone must.
Therefore, the reform of economic governance framework around the corner, European leaders have agreed to strengthen consolidation of the euro zone economy. A broad and common euro area macroeconomic policy oversight mechanisms, focusing on those who continued loss of competitiveness of countries with big deficits to start an open and transparent and effective mechanism to clear sanctions.
The financial crisis has taught us that economic growth will be subject to the severe impact of financial market disruption. As a result, the EU has adopted a new system of financial regulation of the European Committee of systemic risk (ESRB), and will be in January 2011, which began operations. With the European Commission under the Banking Bureau (EBA), the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Board (EIOPA), Bureau of European Securities and the market (ESMA) of three regulatory bodies. In this new regulatory system, the European Commission will monitor systemic risk and the assessment of the stability of the financial system caused by the potential threat; risk warning will recommend the necessary actions and measures, and monitor implementation.
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