Popular speaking, the performance of the world economy in 2011 depends on the three places in the world: emerging markets, the eurozone and the United States (on the Japanese economy has been so good heavyweight, but has been difficult to achieve). Because of these three major economies and the growth prospects of different political positions against each other, making the development of three very different economies. And now, the new divide is emerging.

Start this year, the greatest contribution to world economic growth in emerging economies start. From Shenzhen to Sao Paulo, the hottest new cities. People are concerned about the past only asset bubble, and now into the wider concerns about economic overheating. China is one of the most typical example, but not the only one going through this process economy. Brazil store shoppers crowded almost breaking, where the inflation rate has more than 5%, and 11 months of imports increased by 44%.

Despite the 2009 recession has passed, but still loose monetary policy environment. Which is why so many countries face pressure to devalue the currency. However, this situation can not last long. To prevent rapid increases in commodity prices, most emerging economies in 2011 will be tightening of policy. If a larger policy efforts, it may cause a sudden decline in economic growth; if policy efforts are not in place, and may also lead to more inflation and the re-tightening policies. Whichever you choose the way in which macro-economic instability in emerging economies face the possibility of greatly increased.

In addition, the euro area’s macroeconomic and financial markets will also be under pressure. As long as government spending cuts in the short term the euro zone economic growth will slow. In a similar core countries like Germany, the financial consolidation of its voluntary or upgrade to the extent of abuse. Peripheral economies such as Ireland, Portugal and Greece’s policy in these economies may choose less, and thus are also bleak.

Based on past experience, those in countries within the system of monetary union is difficult to compress wages and lower prices through the way in the near future to improve their competitiveness. Worse, when the euro-zone countries bankruptcy on financial markets will be more clear, not only will the euro zone government debt, and even the entire banking system in Europe will need to re-examine.

Meanwhile, the U.S. economy will change, but the direction is different. Compared with Europe, the United States in the macroeconomic policy mix decisively abandoned the restrictive policy. December 7 this year, Obama and the Republican tax cuts will reach a consensus, not just the Bush tax cuts will be extended for two years, will be launched in 2011 a new tax cuts, which amount exceeds GDP of 2 %. If the Fed to continue to purchase bonds at the same time, it will undoubtedly hit the U.S. economy a shot in the arm.

In fact, the world’s top three economies, the differences on the direction of development will increase the risk of a single economy. The United States and the euro area monetary policy on sovereign debt default fears will make capital flows to emerging economies, central banks in emerging economies, inflation had to raise interest rates. In the next 5 years time, half of world economic growth will come from emerging economies.

So much for the world economy is rebalancing, rather, the world economy in the debt-ridden Western and Eastern countries of funds between the desire for playing seesaw.

The future may be in conjunction with the Congressional Research Obama’s long-term deficit reduction plan, and long-term state of the European leaders in the struggle will specifically discuss how to make a single currency and the European banking system more stable. As for emerging markets, may allow the currency to appreciate. Do not get too excited, however, the three major economies are facing different direction, possibly the world economy in 2011 will be more shocks.

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