December concluded United Nations climate change conference in Cancun, do not expect high in Copenhagen, the results are not encouraging the highlights. Looking at “Cancun agreement” specific content, full of compromise, compromise, transitional characteristics, little substantive progress.

However, the Cancun meeting people whom nervous tension, is the “Kyoto Protocol” abolition, that the climate change negotiations and the merger of the two-track dispute. In this sense, the success of the Cancun meeting, not whether it has real progress or breakthrough, but because it effectively prevents the laws of the Copenhagen agreement, to avoid the “Kyoto Protocol” the misfortune of being killed.

So, Durban, South Africa in 2011, how should expectations? The reasons for the multi-track climate change negotiations in parallel? Double-track mechanism can also go far? For China, an opportunity or challenge?

Durban, how far?

Cancun negotiations to stop the climate agreement, “the merger” reflects the common but differentiated responsibilities of the two-track negotiations have been maintained. “Cancun agreement” does not regress, in fact, progress.

However, we must also see that the focus of the climate negotiations have been pressed in the “Convention” negotiations, that the long-term cooperative action (AWG-LCA) of the track. “Kyoto Protocol” track of negotiations, the form seems more than content.

“Cancun agreement” on the “Kyoto Protocol” commitment period under the Working Group II countries (AWG-KP) of the resolution, the text of two pages, however, a total of six content and only involves the second commitment period of the developed countries reduce greenhouse gases a single row of target problems and compliance mechanisms and may affect the flexibility, does not address other issues. AWG-LCA’s resolution is up to 29 pages, with 147 content and four annexes, covering the six major elements of the Bali Action Plan: a shared vision for long-term cooperative action, adaptation, mitigation, capital, technology and capacity building.

In some ways speaking, in the “Convention” under negotiation, the Parties to form some consensus, at least out of a few “blank check.” Despite the lack of substantive content, but it is not in the previous outcome of the negotiations and should be considered “progress.” The “Kyoto Protocol” track of negotiations, the developed countries there is no clear commitment to emissions reductions after 2012, new figures, in fact, the “Copenhagen Protocol” justified by the voluntary commitment, not only no progress, in fact, there are going backwards.

Durban, South Africa in 2011 left the meeting, is still a two-track parallel talks. However, the “Kyoto Protocol” track of negotiations, people can get? Even if the developed countries to accept the “second commitment period of the” target, it can only repeat the “bottom-up” the Copenhagen commitments, difficult to improve the emission reduction targets; and the United States separated from the “Kyoto Protocol” in addition, all its commitment to the emerging economies as a prerequisite for commitment. As the “Cancun agreement” did not give a timetable for the second commitment period, the possibility of a blank and can not be completely ruled out. On the contrary, “Cancun Agreement” on the “Convention” under the contents of the negotiation, the differences clearly, the prospect of a clear consensus. Concern, “Quick Start”, “climate fund”, has formed a consensus in principle, there are several “options.” Particularly in developing countries want to resolve the financial, technical, forests and adaptation need to be further implemented; transparency of objects, some of the basic principles and elements have also been confirmed that the meeting in South Africa will discuss some details to work out a mechanism for transparency.

This means that the current two-track negotiation mechanism, there have been significant asymmetries: “Convention” legs, “Kyoto Protocol” short legs. The focus has been heavily skewed towards negotiations, “Covenant” track. If the “Convention” under the covers developed and developing countries negotiating emission reduction commitments in 2010 or actions, and become legally binding international agreement significance, there may be substantial climate negotiations, “dual unity.”

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