Time is about to penetrate the year 2010, projected to 2011. In such a critical point, people tend to stop and hurry to taste the past year: What precipitated it? Looking into the new year: what it is going to start a new picture? It is with this desire, this newspaper launched today, year-end series of feature articles, and readers with the taste of hope over the past year, we are excited in the economic field, and thinking, struggle, doubt, bit by bit; look to the new year, the possible direction of development. Today is the first year-end launch of feature articles, then the other end of the year this newspaper will feature articles published in succession.

Stagflation is a test of the structural pattern of all countries: developed countries face shrinking markets and economic development has stagnated, inflation in emerging market countries more than a high fever. Side is to expand the scale and to maintain an accommodative stimulus, the other side of the urgent implementation of exit strategy using various tools, but two people were unhappy under the situation that developed countries printed money without increasing influx of the real sector, unemployment, strikes, not to spend money, security standards reduce the … …; and emerging markets suffer after-effects of hot money, and internal and external effects of stimulus-induced inflation, increasing basket residents and real estate bubble seriously affect quality of life.

Tug of war between inflation and deflation

Pressure by the international food prices, the Brazilian market price of major food products rose by 6.59% this year, Brazilian soybean price is doubled. Food product prices, the Brazilian government wants to control the inflation rate this year, 4.5% led to a lot of pressure.

October this year, “BRIC” China, Brazil, Russia, India, CPI rose 4.4%, respectively, 5.2%, 7.5% and 9.8% dramatically over the inflation target of the default. Food prices in India rose 10% over 52 consecutive weeks, triggering a public panic.

In addition, South Korea, Vietnam, Iran, Argentina and other countries have suffered different degrees of inflation, the inflation rate for Argentina this year may reach 40%, Iran’s inflation rate remained high at 9.9%.

In 2010, slow growth in the euro area GDP, GDP growth last quarter, three quarters was 0.4%, 0.1%, 0.2%, and the price index has been falling boundaries of the European Central Bank’s 2% below last three months data is 1.5%, 1.6%, 1.4%. Inclined downward as the economy, coupled with fiscal austerity policies, the European economy may be in 2011 and entered deflation.

Who gave birth to international buy the asset bubble

The property market in developed and emerging economies, the contrast between the more extreme scenes. The southern U.S. city of Atlanta has been the subject favored real estate developers in the booming property market, while for the construction of office buildings. Now, as economic growth stagnated, Atlanta real estate into “economic coma,” office and apartment no one is interested.

Industry have said that the housing flows past New York Chinese “from west to east”, that is, new immigrants will be in Flushing, Queens, Brooklyn area, or living, better economic conditions, and then gradually be moved to Long Island and other places. Recently, however, choose “from east to west,” added the Chinese to move to Manhattan, and the region are interested in luxury, then gave birth to the “flat inspection mission.” Reported that the initial developers and real estate-only seating for more than 40, then increased to 100, when the number of applicants more than 200 people to hear, let them by surprise.

According to industry sources, the New York real estate sector have now spread to China’s wealthy Manhattan home, and some ready to retire, and some buying for the kids to study.

Industry sources said the buyers emerging market countries is a major reason the sea is the surge in housing bubble, China, Russia and other countries of the high prices of those in power have become heart disease.

IM F this spring in the “World Economic Outlook” report that “strong global recovery than expected.” Six months later, the organization to judge the situation on the world economy has changed. Report in the autumn, IM F key words describe the world economy into “the overall economic recovery to date in line with expectations, but the downside risk increases.”

United Nations Economic and Social Affairs in its “2011 World Economic Situation and Prospects” report also said that from mid-2010, the global economic growth was slowing, growth in 2011 is likely to be even slower.

The OECD predicts that world economic growth rate in 2011 fell 0.6% to 4.2%, may rebound in 2012 to 4.6%. IM F Lang Xiaer chief economist Olivier Kolb said the global recovery, “not strong, is not balanced, and there is the risk of non-sustainable.”

The world economy forecast trends in the sector is becoming increasingly uncertain, “stagnation” and “inflation” plagued every country, from the bottom out of the economic crisis, before the face of recovery, “scraped the bone healing”, pain in the inevitably, it also contains hope.

Ministry of National Information Center of Economic Research World Zhang Mo-nan said, “from the inventory digestion and economic changes, capital expenditures, property adjustment and demand gap in perspective, the global economy, rapid growth in the short term is difficult to reproduce the pattern of the current round of economic adjustment will continue for 2-3 years. “she said, despite worldwide will have” secondary policy stimulus “to hedge” the secondary risk of recession “, but really out of the crisis could be a lengthy process, yet to be found in the major economies The new source of economic growth, the global economy to do well to accept a longer period of preparation for low-speed hovering.

For the current global economy deflation and inflation coexist, China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, Chan Fung Ying, director of the world economy that this is the two major economies from the economic growth and structural differences caused by different and the pace of recovery. A new round of the U.S. introduction of quantitative easing, but also propelled the influx of hot money to emerging markets, thereby increasing inflationary pressures in emerging markets.

Emerging economies, the industry generally believe that food, energy and raw materials prices are pushing up inflation, the main reason. It is reported that the global agricultural prices are almost synchronous.

In addition to these objective factors, but also from the macro level of inflation. Peking University expert explained that, first of all, the consequences of stimulus begin to be felt. Second, the Fed is pursuing a policy of quantitative easing, so that emerging economies state-controlled prices of the situation even more complicated. Third, for those who choose to raise interest rates to prevent and curb inflation economies, the resulting negative effects are obvious. Day hike in South Korea, the won fell against the U.S. dollar does not rise, and led other Asian currencies generally strengthened. In other words, higher interest rates further encouraged the enthusiasm of hot money into these markets.

Bank of China Institute of International Finance reports that this subprime mortgage crisis caused by the economic crisis, many Americans are busy, has made debt, or save money, and in the current situation of high unemployment, people can not spend money, the natural there will be deflation situation.

CSC research report that the current round of stagflation from lack of demand and excess liquidity in the game. Inflationary pressure from excess liquidity rather than cost impact. In the current round of the inventory cycle after the high point, there will be a stage of stagflation, but the current needs of the instability and volatility of liquidity point of view, stagflation could be a short stage characteristics.

The relatively objective judgments reflect the current phase of economic reality. In the United States, Japan, Europe and other countries, although central banks have implemented a zero real interest rate measures, deflation is still lingering clouds. Early November every year from 2010, the United States rose just 0.9% C PI; euro-zone countries increased by 0.7%; and Japan fell a record low of 1.5% in ten years. In addition, the stagnation or even contraction of bank credit, and high unemployment and the conflict between the expected output gap and accelerate the deterioration of the tight situation. In the euro zone countries, deflation or even suppress the domestic consumer demand.

International authority of the analysts believe that if the developed countries to crunch really come much more terrible than the inflation rate. Before prices went down, some consumers have been expected when the crash coming, they will automatically postpone the purchase, the economic situation into a quandary, at which point the consumer weakens further drive the price plummeted. Occurs when the heavily indebted economy, the price drop is bound to increase consumer and government debt burden.

More difficult to cope with deflation than inflation in the past 20 years, in response to rapidly rising prices, the Bank has accumulated considerable experience. Although the government to reduce inflation through high debt burden, but the arrival of the new round of tightening, the Japanese side in response to falling prices become increasingly powerless. Taking these reasons, the United States, Japan, Europe prices three of the world there is no reason the central bank fears. Increasingly tight budget means that the size of bank interest rates within a few years will be at low levels, by the rich and the zero interest rate monetary policy, capital will be “profit-driven,” the flow of high-yield areas, further undermining the stability of the regional economy.

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