Recently, most U.S. economic indicators more optimistic. Federation of American companies to improve consumer confidence index for three consecutive months, from 48.6,49.9, increased to 54.1; the U.S. ISM manufacturing index for 15 consecutive months to maintain the watershed in the fortunes of 50 or more services index maintained for 4 months 50 above; the Chicago purchasing managers index for 13 consecutive months, maintained at 50 or more, and the last 4 months, to resume its rally; 2009, major financial institutions on Wall Street is the financial crisis swept away the haze, earned pours.

For this reason, many economists and analysts have confidence in the U.S. economy swelled up again. However, the December 3 to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor, for the optimism pouring a pot of cold water. November 2010, the United States a net increase of only 3.9 million non-farm payrolls, far below the expected 14.0 million and 17.2 million in pre-revised data. And 11 months of unemployment, from 9.6% in recent months has remained surged to 9.8%. Since employment is the most important economic indicator data, therefore, optimistic about the recently published U.S. consumer confidence index and industrial surveys, etc., in the face of dismal employment data, they pale.

This crisis, the U.S. launched the anti-crisis measures for counter-cyclical is unprecedented, the use of the huge expenditure and massive money supply to save the economy. In the dual means of fiscal and monetary stimulus, economic recovery is mainly reflected in the main stock index rose sharply, rising commodity prices on the. From March 2009 to April 2010, the Dow Jones index rose by 42.5%. August 2010, President Obama re-implementation of the 350 billion U.S. dollars in fiscal stimulus, the Fed launched in November 6000 billion size of the second round of the quantitative easing policy. In the dual stimulation, the Dow Jones index in September 2010 once again exceeded decline, reaching 11,451 in early December after the high point of the crisis.

The recovery brought the dual incentives of financial institutions is reflected in outstanding performance, 2009 performance of financial institutions, Wall Street rebounded strongly, a number of financial institutions, employee bonus or exceed pre-crisis levels. According to a recent “Wall Street Journal,” a survey report released in 2010 following the 2009 Wall Street is expected to pay after the new record high.

However, due to economic stimulus measures in fact only temporary “blood”, and at the same time curing the past economic system, it can not solve practical problems in the economy, the real economy can not create basis for building long-term growth. First half of 2010, momentum began to weak U.S. economic recovery, GDP data began to fall, the housing market fell again, the unemployment rate rose to 9.5% from 9.6%, to 9.8%.

Therefore, only some leading indicators improve and the confidence index to determine the rise in the U.S. economy as the basis for fundamental improvement, even in order to determine economic policy, in fact, was less cautious. Subjective improvement in the confidence index of profitability and financial institutions, while the current U.S. economic problems should not underestimate the complexity and difficulty. Should focus more on the unemployment rate and other indicators of whether there is radical improvement, as well as over-consumption and dual-high deficits and other issues to be solved is the focus of these factors.

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