National security is a matter of understanding events in order to build policies and capabilities to deal with current and future security threats. The cliche “learn from history” is helpful only when the historic frame of reference is perceived accurately in substance and timing. The general perception of history is that it unfolds in eras which give the sense that applicable historic lessons are in the more distant past. However, within the last century, the trend of history has been punctuated by singular paradigm-changing events: examples are the German invasion of Poland in September 1939; the use of atomic weapons in 1945; the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991; and the September 11, 2001 attacks on the Twin Towers. The most recent of these historical singular events has been occurring in the Middle East with a series of revolutions against various long-standing governments in multiple countries; these attacks on standing governments have been euphemistically melded into a regional event called the ‘Arab Spring.’ This current history is signaling the need to shift how the United States approaches online terrorism studies and security and intelligence studies.

The Arab Spring is a climactic combination of events signaling another change in the course of history; it is not so much a shift toward democracy as a tectonic geostrategic shattering of the relative stability of the old autocratic order and being currently replaced by chaotic uncertainty. Egypt, Libya, and Syria are prime examples of the uncertainty principle. Prior to the Arab Spring, security and intelligence studies reflected decades of relative continuity of policies and results in Egypt, Libya, and Syria. Mubarak suppressed the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. Gaddafi did not allow al Qaeda to grow to a significant force in Libya. The Assad family suppressed Sunni extremists while keeping the Shiite client Hezbollah within acceptable bounds. Now these regimes have been either eradicated or are at the verge of extinction. Experts argue the region is devolving into fragmented areas of religious influence that pit extremists against old-line clans; states like Iran seek to forge a Shiite arc of influence to oppose a Sunni arc of influence led by fundamentalist Wahhabi Saudi Arabia. Al Qaeda and al Qaeda allies are active in virtually every Arab country, reflecting a phoenix-like rise to pose new threats to the region and the West. All of the existing security and intelligence studies and online terrorism studies must be rethought to account for the dynamic new conditions and the evolving uncertainties. A daunting specter haunts the US, Israel and the West that Islamic terror groups such as the Iranian client Hezbollah or the al Qaeda pledge Jabhat al-Nusra will acquire advanced chemical weapons or chemical agents during the Syrian War.

The United States intervened in Iraq and Afghanistan in the first decade of this millennium; the US now is essentially out of Iraq and preparing to leave Afghanistan. Iraq is slipping back into sectarian conflict; the Afghani national prospects are highly problematic. There are calls to intervene in Syria where 15 or more different factions strive for ascendancy and power. The recent lessons of US intervention suggest that enduring success cannot be achieved unless the US implements new policies. The imperative for the US is to “go back to the drawing board” with objective, intensive, and new online terrorism studies and security and intelligence studies. Think tanks, war colleges, the Intelligence Community, and security education through private online schools all must partner to provide the required new educational and analytic foundation to deal with the threats that are emerging in this emerging new epoch of history in the Middle East.

Dan Sommer works for Henley-Putnam University, a leading educational institution in the field of Strategic Security. For more info on Henley-Putnam University, online terrorism studies,

Dan Sommer works for Henley-Putnam University, a leading educational institution in the field of Strategic Security. For more info on Henley-Putnam University, online terrorism studies, security and intelligence studies, call 888-852-8746 or visit us online at http://www.Henley-Putnam.edu

Author Bio: Dan Sommer works for Henley-Putnam University, a leading educational institution in the field of Strategic Security. For more info on Henley-Putnam University, online terrorism studies,

Category: Education
Keywords: online terrorism studies,security and intelligence studies