At no point in recent history have the American people been this angry and dissatisfied with their government. Both political parties are unpopular, less than a third believe the country is heading in the right direction and Congress has a record 11% approval rating. The polls all indicate that big changes will be taking place after the November election. The question is how big? To truly change the Congress, the Democratic majority party must be removed from power. To accomplish this, the Republican Party must take control of Congress or at least the House. But can they do it?

Unfortunately there is no historical precedent for this political situation and therefore the experts are not really sure what will happen. Everything suggests that the party in power will be kicked out. However, the alternative party, the Republicans, are equally unpopular. Never have the American people been so upset both parties. The situation begs the question, what will the people do when it is time to decide between two unpopular parties?

Will they express their discontent by voting for neither or a third party candidate? Will they vote for the “lesser of two evils” and support the Republicans? Or will it come down to the individual candidates?

There are three common numbers experts use to judge the overall feeling of American voters. First is the Presidential approval rating. Generally an unpopular President means his party will take losses in the midterm election. President Obama has an approval in the mid-40s, which suggest his party may take “serious” losses.

The second number is the generic Congressional ballot. Voters are asked to select a candidate based solely on party affiliation. According to Rasmussen, Republicans have a 45-36 edge on a generic ballot, which would suggest Republicans could easily retake the House. Gallup has also shown a dramatic upswing in voters that intend to vote Republican in November. In fact, Gallup recorded Republican support at 49%, which has not happened since 1994 just before the Republicans won 54 seats and retook the House.

The third number is a poll which asks if people believe the country is headed in the right direction. Sadly, only 27% believe it is heading in the right direction, according to Rasmussen. Other polling companies have had similar results.

What about the issues? Who do voters trust more? Despite their lack of popularity among the American people, the Republican Party is trusted more on eight of ten major issues. According to Rasmussen, Republicans are trusted more on key issues such as the economy, national security and immigration.

These numbers suggest Americans are ready to put Republicans back in power, but will they show up to vote for them in November. Midterms are often more about turnout than voter preferences. Turnout is sometimes predicted by judging the level of enthusiasm among voters. In terms of enthusiasm, it does not look good for Democrats. According to Gallup 51% of Republicans are “very enthusiastic” about voting in November. In comparison, only 28% of Democrats are “very enthusiastic” about voting.

Looking at all of this data, it would be easy to conclude the Republicans will indeed retake Congress. However, control of Congress is not determined by polls, it is determined by 472 individual elections (435 House and 37 Senate). In the House, the Democrats have a 255-178 majority. To retake the House, Republicans will need to win back 40 seats. In the Senate, the Democrats have a 59-41 majority. The Republicans need to flip 10 seats (in the case of a 50-50 tie, Vice President Biden would be the tiebreaker).

RealClearPolitics (RCP) offers election projections based on an average of polls it collects from several polling companies. According to their estimates the Republicans have a good chances of retaking the House but not the Senate.

ChamberLean DemocratLean RepublicanToss Up
House20320131
Senate484210
Senate (no toss ups)5248*

* = RCP projects Charlie Crist to win Florida, on this chart it assumes he caucuses with the Republicans

This method of projecting outcomes is not scientific but does give some idea of what could happen. According to RCP the Republicans can retake the House if they can win 17 of the 31 races that are rated toss up. In the Senate, RCP projects Republicans will come up 3 short of a majority.

The numbers discussed above strongly suggest the Republicans will either retake the House or get very close. It will very likely come down to a couple key races that will decide who controls the House of Representatives in 2011-2012.

The Republican Party is unpopular and performed poorly their last term in power (2005-2007). Since then, the Democratic Party has performed even worse. It is hardly encouraging to Americans that we have an opportunity to choose the “lesser of too evils”. However, when it comes to the Five Core Principles, it is far more likely the Republicans will implement the right policies. The Democratic Party agenda is in almost polar opposition to the Five Core Principles. The Republicans meanwhile have elements within the party that are strong supporters. It is important that Americans encourage and empower these elements within the Republican Party.

When it comes to conservatives, tea partiers, and libertarians it is important to them that the “right” Republicans get elected. There are still portions of the Party that seem willing to implement big government solutions. These elements must be marginalized or eliminated. The best way is to support principled candidates in the primaries to ensure the right candidates get on the ballot in November. If the wrong candidate wins the primary, voters can still make a difference. It is essential that the Democratic Party is removed from power. Voters must accept the fact that a weak Republican is better than a Democrat. The weak Republican can always be challenged and defeated in the next primary election. Until then we must not lose sight of our objective. The objective in 2010 is to stop the Obama-Pelosi-Reid agenda. As of today, it looks like we can succeed in November.

Author Bio: J. Wesley Fox is the Chairman of Restore America’s Legacy PAC. He is a recent graduate of DePaul University College of Law and has been active in local and national politics for several years. He currently lives in New Jersey after growing up in the Chicago suburbs.www.restoreamericaslegacy.com

Category: Politics
Keywords: Taxes,redistribution of wealth,free markets,tax cuts,job creation,economic growth