China Securities Journal said China should be alert to food speculative funds, in particular, should guard against imported inflation, the international agricultural incentives and the overlay of domestic disaster factors, inflation is expected to strengthen the residents.

According to China Securities Journal reported on August 11, Russia or to extend the ban on wheat export news to the already fierce rally international agricultural futures markets added to a dash of uncertainty. China Securities Journal that the international grain trade does not a result of the formation of a huge supply gap of natural disasters, but China should be alert to food speculative funds, in particular, should guard against imported inflation, the international agricultural incentives and the overlay of domestic disaster factors, and strengthen the residents of inflation expected.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin announced on the 5th, due to 50 years suffered a rare case of drought, agriculture suffered a severe blow to Russia, will temporarily ban food exports. Day of the Chicago Futures Exchange (CBOT) wheat futures prices have soared more than 8%, the highest 23-month record high. 9, international media reported that Russia once again warned that grain export ban may be extended until 2011.

Russian wheat exports account for about 14% of the global total. Russia suffered a serious drought in 2010, it is estimated that wheat exports decline than in 2009 up to 44%. In other major wheat producing countries, Canada, and heavy rain is expected to yield to the lowest level since 2002; Australia is also the main place of origin because of drought, wheat production fell.

Bad weather swept across the world will trigger a new round of food crisis? In response, FAO said that record high for two consecutive years, the international wheat stocks adequate supplementary enough to make up for the 2010 annual production gap caused by the decrease can stabilize the market. Meanwhile, global wheat exports to the United States ranked first, accounting for 18% of the global total. 2010, the United States to significantly increase production, will largely offset the reduced production of other areas. Current annual world market of wheat supply is still possible for the history of the third level, consumption of food stocks in more than 17% -18%, despite the food security of the online side, would not have formed a huge supply gap.

However, the recent 3 months, CBOT wheat futures prices rose nearly 90% of the maximum, Russia’s wheat export ban is just one of a small incentive. Analysis of this wheat futures prices soaring global factors behind, in addition to weather and disaster factors, the speculation of international speculative capital are also important factors.

In fact, in the current round of global agricultural futures surge process, fame and wealth of international speculative capital figure reproduction. According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) report released positions, the U.S. wheat significant inflow of funds, and beans, corn and other phenomena are also seen net inflows of capital into the market clearly contributed to the severity. Grain and other agricultural products have a low elasticity of demand, even if the economic slowdown, the total global demand will not be significantly affected because of agricultural products Zhezhong features relaxed in the overall global liquidity conditions, funds will be separate ways agricultural products as the preferred speculation.

Since 2010, there were several items of agricultural products to be speculative capital speculation. From the “garlic you relentless” to “bean you play” to “crazy corn”, a variety of prices of agricultural products to be stir careen behind, showing some sign of financial speculation. China Securities Journal that the international food market in the current context of increased uncertainty, should guard against the resurgence of speculative forces, the control of inflation worries.

China is not a major wheat-importing countries, the annual import volume of less than 10%, and imports mainly due to swap part of the supply of quality wheat. Therefore, the State Development and Reform Commission, said authorities, the Russian grain export ban on China will not directly affect the food supply.

But most should be alert to the international agricultural products imported inflation incentives and domestic factors of weather disasters, the overlay may further strengthen the people’s inflation expectations. From the beginning of the year, China and more drought, floods and other natural disasters, the production of food crops in some areas affected. Current listing autumn imminent disaster factors may affect the yield to some extent, thereby affecting price trends.

Fortunately, China’s staple agricultural products reserve mechanism has been established, a more adequate food stock reserves have the strength to protect the domestic supply, spot market supply shortage will not be significant. In recent years, China to increase the procurement of agricultural products on the international, national reserves sufficient inventory is higher than consumption. As of April, the total inventory of state-owned grain enterprises raw grain more than 4,500 jin, stock consumption ratio of 40% or more, far exceeding the internationally accepted 17% -18% of the level of safety line.

Therefore, the China Securities News that China’s staple grain reserve system can fully protect the domestic food supply overall balance to fully realize this mechanism as long as the market adjustment function, sufficient to Duikangshichang Toujililiang to sufficient supplies and market rationality of Jiagewending and lower inflation expectations.

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