Eurostat announced on August 13, in Germany, driven by strong economic growth in the euro zone second quarter of 2010 gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of up to 1% of the chain, creating the biggest increase in four years. But analysts pointed out that the beautiful data conceal uneven economic development within the euro zone status, members of uneven economic performance, the sustained and steady economic recovery have not yet embarked on the road. Strong economic growth in the second quarter, the euro area is likely to have reached this round of the recovery of the peak is expected from the second half of the region’s economic growth will slow.

In addition, Greece 7th consecutive quarter of economic decline, the market is also growing concern about the Irish banking sector. Analysts expect the positive economic data can not be sustained drive up the euro, the euro will be coming down into the track.

The first phalanx strong drive

Data showed the euro zone second-quarter economic gains gratifying. The second quarter of 2010 the euro area GDP growth rate of the chain of 1%, higher than expected 0.7%; up 1.7%, higher than the expected 1.4% increase. Eurostat also announced the euro zone in June from the May balance of trade account deficit to a surplus of 2.4 billion euros state, higher than the expected 10 billion euros.

Eurozone exports in June rose 27% to 137.9 billion euros, imports grew 31% to 135.4 billion euros, have reached in October 2008 to the highest level. European Commission spokesman said the data confirmed the growth of the euro area economy continues to recover, but the recovery process is still relatively weak, governments need to continue to reduce budget deficits.

Eurozone economic boom in the second quarter, of which two-thirds of the growth in share of the contribution from Germany. UBS analysts said that if Germany’s economic slowdown, the euro-zone economy is bound to “drop a notch.”

German Bureau of Statistics announced on the 13th, Germany’s second-quarter GDP rose 2.2%, Central, up 3.7%, the highest growth record level of 1990. German Economy Minister Buludelei said, “Germany’s GDP growth likely would be much higher than 2%.” Buludelei that strong economic growth will allow the withdrawal of the German government stimulus plan to accelerate the pace of deficit reduction.

The second quarter, exports and investment is the biggest driving force of the German economy.

Benefit from the depreciation of the euro and the global economy pulled the overall recovery of exports, Germany’s exports in June rose 3.8%, Central, much higher than market expectations of 1.5%, a sharp increase over the previous year is 29%. Agency expects the country’s exports next year will increase by 11% and 8%, next year’s exports is expected to surpass 2008’s record level.

However, HSBC global head of fixed income research department Steven – Meyer believes that Germany’s export growth was mainly accounted for the euro’s “cheap”, Germany is dependent on high-debt countries, the weak euro-zone growth, “which Germany is The good news, but for other countries and the euro zone in terms of overall economic recovery will not be so good to. ”

On the same day, the French National Bureau of Statistics data released unsatisfactory in the second quarter GDP rose 0.6% initial ring, slightly higher than expected 0.5% increase; the second quarter of sequential growth in fixed capital investment by 0.8%, achieved from 2008 to the first second expansion. French Finance Minister Lagarde said the country’s 2010 economic growth target of 1.4% in confidence, but she also pointed out that the French Government to the expenditure on the extreme self-discipline.

Second-tier economies, the prospects look bleak

Eurozone economic data showed the second quarter, the economic performance of member countries of the region become more differentiated, showing the strong Always the Winner, the weak constant weak trend. Analysts pointed out that the euro zone economy to slip back into stagnation warning not fully lifted.

Greek debt crisis exploded in Europe’s worst economic performance in the recession and sinking deeper into mud. Greece 12, National Bureau of Statistics announced the country’s second-quarter GDP fell 1.5%, decreased 3.5%. This means that Greece as a 16-nation euro zone in the second quarter, the only negative growth countries.

Greece’s second largest bank EFG Eurobank economist Monuokeluo Soss expected “due to the construction industry output down deep sites, pillar industries of tourism doldrums, the second half of the Greek economy in 2010 will be very difficult.”

Spain’s National Statistics Bureau announced on the 13th, the second-quarter GDP of 0.2% of the chain growth, but growth is well below the euro zone average, and still the second quarter GDP fell 0.2% year on year. Spanish government is expected in the third quarter of Spain’s economy will maintain growth, but growth rate will continue to narrow. BBVA said it does not rule out the Spanish economy fell again in the third quarter possible. Bank of Spain believes that the situation in the country’s economic recovery has primarily solid, but the credit crunch and economic uncertainty caused by the slow growth of investment, will cast a shadow over future economic development.

Fear of continued decline in the euro

Pulled up by the euro-zone economic data, on the 13th euro hit 1.2889 against the dollar intraday high, but then decline, the euro fell 0.58% against the dollar to 1.2754 day. Analysts believe this means that the market recovery in the euro area economy remain cautious.

At the same time, Ireland became the focus of the market. Because the Government is going to the Anglo – Irish Bank injected 10 billion euros, investors worried that the assistance of the Irish banking costs will continue to rise. German commercial banks that affect the market more sensitive to peripheral nerve in the euro zone’s economic situation, while those from large economies such as Germany, the positive news for the euro can not be too much of the action can provide.

Royal Bank of Canada analyst Cole believes that judging from the long-term, after the euro’s gains against the dollar probably has ended, the future of the euro there is a new round of losses.

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