Things change, the market is always right.

A month ago, most people are still sovereign debt crises because of the ups and downs of the global economy worry about the second bottom, but we knew it, the world’s stock markets actually look at an empty gaze out of the Jedi fight back curve. As of August 19, the U.S. Dow Jones index, the S & P index, the Nasdaq index rose 6.56 percent the quarter, 6.16% and 5.05%; Europe, the FTSE 100 index, the French CAC index and the German DAX index rose quarter of 7.85%, 5.96% and 3.7%; Hong Kong Hang Seng index, the Bovespa, Brazil and Australia have also permit the quarter 200 index rose 4.59%, 11% and 3.76%. But on the afternoon of August 19, the Shanghai index to re-touch 2700 points.

It’s filled with endless variables. Like “The Wall Street Journal,” a popular series of articles in recent days, “the world’s greatest investor” described, “according to Schaeffer Investment Research data, the Dow Jones industrial average of 90 days this year are expected to reach 100 points fluctuations or more of the economic crisis ─ ─ 3 years before any number of days to reach this amplitude more than twice. ” For the “world’s greatest investor” by the four leading markets of beach-goers focused Susan Byrne, Thyra Zerhusen, David Herro and Buffy special case, the turbulent years is still full of opportunities.

Interestingly, they are four different ways to grasp the opportunity, Byrne favor large-scale comprehensive enterprise, Zenhausern preference for small-scale technology and industrial enterprises, Hilo keen to buy European stocks, Buffett is, as always, diversify. But in my opinion, this four top investors have one very similar traits or instincts: to grasp the logic of the economy. This trait or instinct, always allow them to easily complete the “greedy when others fear, fear in others when the greed” of the wisdom of the move. After all, the trend toward a final document by a pile of live market transactions, each transaction back, in fact bears a kind of economic and market understanding. Parrot who follow the crowd, grasping the logic of those who are leading the trend.

In my view, economic forecasting and market forecast has three levels: first level seat of your pants, the lack of theoretical knowledge, empirical observation of another lazy, based on market expectations and racking our brains, timidly throw intuitive prediction, once made on glowing terms; s With two levels of logic, found running from the law of the economy and, through logical deduction, analysis of future trends, in most cases, this prediction method of deduction itself is more compelling than the conclusion; third level back seat of your pants, but This is a profound insight into the logic based on the latest changes arises spontaneously after a feeling, a feeling rational set of logical deduction and emotional perception in one market.

Economics and investment gurus all, with their excellent performance demonstrates the economic logic of the process. Find logical first stop is the most unlikely of basic research. Example, the precise content of a series of economic terms, a series of new things, new technology or new markets and so the basic properties of these seemingly insignificant first step, followed by a series of analysis for the foundation. Unfortunately, the rhetoric of the market that has been “professional” to disdain even this first step is taken, Consequently, these people may not know the mouth of the spot price is the futures price or oil price forecasts are generously Change, or do not know what the currency against the U.S. dollar index is a package of U.S. dollar exchange rate index to predict generously depreciate. I still firmly believe that logic can not born in this “low error” of the soil, a forecast only for prediction, even the most basic economic theory, economic dynamics and economic forecast for the fact that those who are confused, at best Phi The diviner of professional coat it.

Search for the second leg of logic, is diligent and careful market observation.before the grasp of the economic logic, economics, and Touzi Masters Men often we would have taken the trouble to observe and Yanjiu the economic history and the history of the fluctuation cycle of the market, based on historical Jing Yan and market Dongtaizongjie Chuyijilie Zouxiang directly or indirectly affect the economy and the market trend factors, and observe the latest changes in these factors. A good researcher and investors will definitely be a good observer. Unfortunately, many market participants to observe the static no less than mind, eager to short-term observations from the sum rule, and then draw some heavy or pedantic, or short-term orientations, or too unrealistic logic, culminating in the analysis and forecast and did not really.

Find the third leg of logic, is a bold grasp the severity of trade-offs and points. Each has a number of economic variables, factors, the key is different each time impact analysis of factors determine the priorities, and to seize the decisive factor, reduce the formation of secondary factors on the logic too much influence. Master of Economics and investment we are always willing to use a lot of energy to different determinants on the important impact of market price formation, the distinction of scenario analysis, not only enrich the logical meaning, leaving logic is full of dynamic and more suitable for on determine the future uncertainty. Sadly, many market analysts have caught large and comprehensive study into the trap, there is no basis for quantitative analysis to determine both the impact of sequencing, then lost in the vague rhetoric of disorder among the final form was confusing and even contradictory logic fuzzy rather than clear tendency to judge.

Looking for logic is the last stop of falsification and calibration. No hard and fast logic, only static stubborn and wrong. In many cases, economics, and investment gurus we would not hesitate to seek discussions with the criticism and new ideas, and explore the old logic of the calibration or repair. To know this world is not only rise or fall not rise or only the economic variables, blindly rude to “insist” that a firm foundation in logic or simple prediction, may harvest a brief moment of success, but in the end only the economic forecasting and market forecasts from a scientific and logical inference into a bloom of the high-end game.

Author Bio: I am a professional editor from China Manufacturers, and my work is to promote a free online trade platform. http://www.cheaponsale.com/ contain a great deal of information about wireless weatherproof camera,oral b electric toothbrushes,flake ice maker, welcome to visit!

Category: Finances
Keywords: aluminum extrusion supplier,outdoor bamboo blinds,hid flashlight,