From the recent performance, China’s digestive system is very tired, both overseas funds, or goods, services, all seemed a poor appetite.

June accelerated in China since the decline in industrial growth, leading to accelerated decline in imports. This year in July, China’s import and export value of 262.31 billion U.S. dollars, up 30.8%, of which imports 116.79 billion U.S. dollars, up 22.7%, higher than the growth rate of imports in June fell 11.4%.

Chase Securities said that China’s imports of commodities led growth has been a cyclical high, China’s procurement of industrial raw materials is declining. In the first 7 months, iron ore imports 360 million tons, up 1.5%, representing a marked slowdown.

Hai Tong Securities explained that the domestic investment slowdown reduced demand for commodities, and the same month last year, the base effect. PMI in recent months of new export orders index and import index terms, imports index contraction is more obvious, the current import index has fallen to below 50 Rise and equilibrium level, which confirms the import from another angle growth magnitude greater than the decline in export growth trend.

For the next import data, Guotai Junan is not optimistic about the economy will continue to the third quarter is expected to decline.

Slowdown in imports, while exports remained strong, will inevitably lead to trade surplus expanded. Trade surplus in July from June’s 20 billion U.S. dollars to expand to 287 million. Surplus resulted in substantial foreign exchange inflows, has led to increasing pressure on RMB appreciation. However, some other signs that the appreciation of RMB has been chasing the overseas funds, the meaning seems to have withdrawn.

Foreign Exchange Reserves in July increased 170.9 billion yuan, 53.8 billion increase in the scale of the previous month. However, the net in July, after the month of trade surplus and FDI can not be explained partly -707 million, which is the Foreign Exchanges after deducting the trade surplus and FDI negative for three consecutive months.

“Although the month of July narrowed slightly negative 34.6 billion yuan last month, but we can still learn to see the momentum continuing outflow of hot money. In particular, in June to restart the exchange reform, the number is out of this almost surprisingly. “First Capital Securities analyst Wang Haoyu in a recent report that.

Wang Haoyu analysis, continuous outflow of hot money may be due to concerns about the quality of the Chinese economy. 2009, nearly 10 trillion explosion of credit, and the first half of 2010, up 4.6 trillion of credit, and promote China’s high economic growth, but also become troublesome: First, rapid bubble real estate market worry, and second, the risk of commercial bank credit assets sudden sharp increase in provision for worry.

Nearly 15 trillion credit drastic dose of the Chinese economy appears to grow strong enough to be able to run to carry, but its mechanism is not healthy recovery, and more than before the crisis there is no improvement. Imbalance in the distribution of credit resources, leading to the promotion of healthy development of the real economy was not ideal.

A typical example is that in mid-July this year, China’s SME Association released the findings of China’s SME development index, index of SME financing in the second quarter was 97.4, down 1 percentage point than the first quarter, below the 100 threshold for the economy.

This shows that the blood of credit, more large veins in the main artery between the cycle, while the proportion of inadequate penetration into the capillaries. This is unusual in China’s economic internal metabolism, digestion decline. After the brief excitement, if improper conditioning, it is easy both blood loss.

If the hot money is really in retreat, then the reason is undoubtedly the “rational.” However, there are many views that the trade surplus continued to expand and the pressure of the international political situation will lead to faster appreciation of the renminbi back to the track. Morgan Stanley economist Wang Qing, according to the statement, some time ago the stability of the RMB is only “summer break”, and “the new term” about to begin.

Once the RMB appreciation, China’s appetite was restored, on the one hand, import growth may be faster, on the other hand, China’s appetite for hot money has been hung up, making China’s capital market appetite seems infinite. But we are worried is that the appetite leading to excessive puffiness, unless necessary “nuanced” and conditioning.

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