Global financial crisis raging in the international context, Australia as a few advanced economies in the housing market has not been a serious impact on the country. Since the first half of last year, the rapid recovery of the Australian housing market, but also attract a large number of overseas investors. However, some analysts pointed out that the Australian housing market, the imbalance between rental, house prices overvalued, the market bubble to be squeezed out.

Some analysts have pointed out that the interlocking factors in the market long and short, the market bubble disappeared the Australian political change may bring about complicating factors such as investment policy adjustments, the Australian housing market is far from a can not lose the promised land.

Or overvalued house prices

Australian Bureau of Statistics recently released data show that the second quarter of this year, 12 months, Australia’s major cities housing prices rose 18.4%.

Market data from Morgan Stanley shows that the level of GDP per capita refer to the Australian house prices overvalued by at least 50%; light of disposable income, Australian house prices are overvalued by about 35%; the reference rent income levels, Australian house prices are overvalued by 40%.

Real estate market in the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis suffered in 2007, up 13.5% of Australian taxpayers reported the rental income, which makes Australia has become a veritable “landlord of the country.” More alarming is that since 2000, the landlord’s rental income and rental expenses total less than the purchase of housing and other expenses arising from the tax. In some cases, the landlord’s rental income insufficient to pay interest on home loans.

Morgan Stanley’s conclusion that a considerable number of investors to purchase debt in Australia, but not solvency, they count on rising home prices rather than rental income to ensure investment success. If house prices fall, these investors will become the first victims. Morgan Stanley analyst opinion, Australian housing market has potential as Leiluan, sign of trouble if the economy is likely to trigger large scale selling, sparked market turmoil.
“Soft landing” and “scarcity of”

Although in the past year, housing prices in major cities in Australia nearly 20%, some analysts point out that Australian house prices tends to narrow the recent rise, the market will achieve a “soft landing.” In addition, land use approval process in recent years tended to strict Australian, scarce land resources available, supply is limited, the period ahead rally in Australian house prices may also be maintained.

Related statistics show that in the fourth quarter of last year, up 5.5% in the ring than the average increase in the second quarter of this year, housing prices in major cities in Australia rose significantly shrink.

According to the end of July release of the Australian RP Data / Rismark housing index shows the average price of housing in Australia has experienced 17 consecutive months of increases, the start slightly down. Some economists believe that the Australian housing market is about to enter inflection point, in the second half price increase will be further narrowed. However, some analysts and developers insist that because the overall scarcity of housing resources, coupled with Australian economic outlook, the future prices will continue to be strong support for some time.

Analysts pointed out that factors such as rapid population growth, Australia’s national housing shortfall of 19 million units by 2020, this gap is expected to reach 466,000 units.
Chinese buyers of long and short term worries

Changes in the exchange rate, policy benefits and personal needs of many other factors, led by Chinese investors in Australia to the enthusiastic home buyers continue to rise. Many people in the eyes of home buyers in Australia has become a hedge risks, to achieve an effective means of increasing the value of assets.

However, given the unpredictable market and policy factors, Chinese investors are faced with long and short term worries.

Data show that China has been following the current United Kingdom, New Zealand migrants to Australia after becoming the third largest country. Last fiscal year alone, China had more than 70,000 people enter Australia for permanent residence. It introduced a number of Australian housing agency, the Chinese investment in Australian real estate investment is the main purpose, children education and retirement, and a lot of investment in high-end real estate. Given weakness in the high-end properties for sale in the fall, so the investment risk is higher.

Last year in March, Australia’s Foreign Investment Review Board enacted new rules to relax foreign investment restrictions on Australian real estate market. The new regulations abolished the only foreigners to buy half of the new opening the restrictions, allowing developers to be sold to foreign investors, the new disc. In addition, the new rules also lifted on the purchase cost of a student passport shall not exceed 30 million limit. This greatly stimulated the enthusiasm of some people to buy a house.

Some analysts point out that the near term, interest rate changes, currency fluctuations and market adjustment to the Australian housing market will bring uncertainties. In addition, the current Australian election has languished in the coming months is likely to produce “vacant Council”, Council will inevitably be a major change, may lead to changes in investment policy. This is particularly necessary for people in Australia and prudent investment, within their means.

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