China’s rapid and successful development, will undoubtedly make it the international arena in the 21st century to play an important role. In fact, despite the many formidable challenges, China may even become a world power.

Suppose, however, again become a so-called “superpower”, China and India, will continue the tradition of the older generation of Western powers is wrong. We will have to deal with a different superpower.

Since the late 15th century to open up routes in Europe, since the conquest of the world, history and international political circles have been accustomed to a pattern: military, economic and technological forces will change as the influence of other countries and the law of the jungle, and even dominate the global hegemony and empire.

In the 20th century, the situation is like that. After two world wars, the United States and the Soviet Union replaced Europe’s international status. After the Cold War and the 1989/1990 United States to establish global hegemony, but also followed this pattern.

But I believe that China’s rise will not be the same. This is because it is a huge 1.2 billion population, its government and leaders will exert enormous pressure. Fundamental change in the event of a major is especially true when, which is China’s current situation.

Advance the national long-term risk of internal political structure, so that China is unlikely to effect power diplomacy. In such circumstances, the U.S. hegemony will not be replaced, unless and until it gives up the role so far.

It sounds simple, but the international pattern of this century will have a profound impact.

Determine the core interest of China’s strategy is the modernization of the ruling party’s continued stability and the status of national unity (including Taiwan). These considerations in a very long period of time will not change.

Introverted superpower

Therefore, China will become a superpower is essentially inward looking. Precisely because of this, it will pursue a pragmatic foreign policy. Militarily, China’s major regional hegemony will seek to ensure national unity. In addition, in order to maintain the status of the ruling party,

Otherwise, from agriculture to a modern and industrialized society of rapid and fundamental change, institutional stability will not waver under the circumstances.

But to focus on domestic development, but also in internal and foreign affairs, have significant political influence. On the domestic point of view, given its huge size and the required GDP growth, China will become the first forced to pursue “green” economy countries. Otherwise, it will soon reach the “limits to growth”, in the face of ecological disaster and its political consequences.

The future, China will become the most important market, not only what determines our production and consumption, but also will determine how we produce and consumption. The traditional vehicle into electric vehicles, for example, despite the existence of the European manufacturers dominate the market fantasies, but in fact, play a decisive role is not the West. West can decide main car dealer, only to not make changes in order to survive, or the same as any other Western industrial old: choose to go to developing countries.

On foreign run, to ensure that the domestic economic restructuring, China will try to get raw materials from abroad and enter overseas markets. However, the Chinese government will sooner or later realize that America’s “global regulator” role in China’s diplomatic interests is essential. This is because China and other countries to take on this task is difficult, if not the United States, the international order would collapse.

The pattern of collaboration the United States will be a dispute, and its role is probably limited to ease the crisis, and from time to time in the economic, political confrontation, as the current bilateral trade imbalance brought about because of conflict. But from a strategic perspective, the two sides will maintain over a long time interdependence. This relationship may also be present at some point in the political, causing resentment in other countries, especially European countries.

Europe must show its strength on the international stage and defend their interests before they can change the development process. Perhaps the U.S. “two groups” are happy to see. However, Europe is too divided and limited power, leaders because of their strategic interests rather than the pursuit of common policy, so that Europe can not effectively make an impact in the international arena.

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