World Economic Potential Risks and Challenges

And 30s of last century the “Great Depression” than in the current round of global financial crisis, the international community remained a gesture of solidarity, a sense of the degree of preparation so that all parties pleased. But with the sustained world economic recovery, the “heating, to the degree winter” situation began to loosen, whether lingering protectionism, or the international community to focus on macroeconomic policies, exchange rates, financial regulation and reform of the international financial organizations increasing differences, etc., are the future of the international community to the outside world can continue to “help each other overcome difficulties” concerned.

It must be emphasized is that although the current world economy continues to recover, but the potential risks and challenges still a lot of the real crisis is far away, at this moment, the international community to continue to uphold the spirit of unity and cooperation is essential.

In conclusion, the outside world “Great Depression” during the experience and lessons, without exception, will be referred to the United States forced the domestic political pressure to adopt trade protectionist measures, causing the prevalence of trade barriers worldwide, the end will exacerbate the crisis, the delay the world economic recovery.

Perhaps it is because of this historical lesson in mid-September 2008, after the outbreak of the international financial crisis, the international community reflects the spirit of unity, cooperation and valuable, the most obvious example is: while including the major developed economies and major emerging economy composed of the Group of Twenty (G20), the historic center of the stage onto the world, the international community to strengthen policy coordination and cooperation platform for the most important response to the crisis. From the November 2008 summit in Washington, to the April 2009 summit in London, to Pittsburgh in September 2009 summit, unity has always been the mainstream G20 summit.

However, from the second half of 2009, as the world economy recovers, the world’s most urgent threat facing the economy eased, countries began to re-consider their own needs first, G20 is also increasing internal divisions. In the June 2010 Toronto Summit, the European Union and the United States as a result of macroeconomic policy was the focus of opposition. At that time, suffering from problems of sovereign debt crisis of the EU want to focus on fiscal consolidation policy, whereas the slower pace of economic recovery in the U.S., we hope to continue more stimulus.

From the Toronto summit has, over the past three or four months, the international community, the differences become even more. Currently, provoked much discussion by the parties to the “currency war”, is the most obvious example. Federal Reserve printing money, the dollar continued to depreciate against other currencies, and to promote a large number of speculative capital into the large emerging economies, and ultimately many economies have taken steps to intervene in the foreign exchange market to curb the excessive appreciation of the currency against the U.S. dollar momentum. This is no coordination, every man for himself the situation is indeed worrying.

In addition to the exchange rate policy, re-balance the world economy, the parties have serious differences. If the certification summary of the current round of global financial crisis, at least two profound lessons, the first is to strengthen financial regulation, and the second is to re-balance the world economy. Rebalancing the world economy in particular, involve both developed economies and developing economies, if the lack of international coordination and cooperation, it is difficult to achieve the desired objectives.

According to the International Monetary Fund to determine, and then balance the two aspects, namely the balance within the economy, which results in the waning government stimulus situation, how to successfully take over the private sector to promote economic growth, “baton “; the second is the balance between the economy, that is, as the representative of the United States to reduce the deficit economy dependent on domestic consumption and increase exports; and surplus represented by China’s economy to expand domestic demand to reduce exports.

Now, in rebalancing the world economy, the lack of international coordination is also evident. So far, the parties have not yet found a suitable occasion, an effective mechanism to determine their own policy goals, share their policies and measures to assess the respective effects of policies with each other. In contrast to the United States representative, accused his country’s increasing number of cooperative atmosphere is not optimistic.

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