The hands of food, hearts do not panic. Since July this year, soaring international food prices, the international community really “flustered” for a while. Then the international food prices continued to rise Why? Will come back a new round of food crisis?

Food and Agriculture Organization recently convened an expert meeting made it clear that the current global grain supply and demand balance, there is no new outbreak of the food crisis at risk. Led to the recent rise in grain prices was mainly due to poor harvests in some cereal exporting countries and the market speculation.

Cut induced by soaring prices

Affected by extreme weather factors, the world’s major grain producing areas reduced production, soaring international food prices this year incentive. This year, the Russian grain production is expected to drop more than 30%, Germany is expected to cut 20% of wheat, Canadian wheat is expected to cut 17%. In addition, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Australia, the world’s major grain-producing areas also occur due to abnormal weather cut.

In order to ensure domestic supply and suppression of food prices, the Russian government decided to temporarily ban food exports, the Government of Ukraine also intends to limit food exports before the end of this year.

Make a dramatic response to this international market. This year in August, the United States Chicago Board of Trade September soft red winter wheat for delivery daily limit, 23 months to hit its highest level in 80% higher than in June. Affected by this pull, the International Maize and rice and other grains prices have ushered in a rally.

Speculative funds took the opportunity to hype

Analysts believe that the large number of “non-commercial positions are” into the agricultural futures market speculation, which is an international food prices this year, a major force behind the hand. In the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s weekly report on futures positions in agricultural products, “business position” include livestock farmers, grain exporters, from the hands of farmers to buy agricultural products and sold to exporters in the middle of dealers, and the purchase of corn- ethanol and other energy traders, and their position changes reflect real market situation. As a “non-commercial positions are,” the fund only for fame and fortune.

PFGBEST roots in agricultural futures analyst Dimuhanna interview with Xinhua, said: “Russia suffered a rare summer dry weather, wheat production plummeted, the fund immediately and start again a lot of speculation on the topic purchase more than one, so that presents a serious technical overbought, leading to excessive expansion of agricultural products on the price. “He believes that the biggest surge in the current round of Xiaomaiqijia promoter is the fund speculation.

Commerzbank analyst Weiyinbeige raw materials, said speculation storm, though not the initiator of grain prices, but speculation in international food prices accelerated. Europe’s largest agricultural trade of agricultural products group transfers of shares of Bavaria and Austria, Lutz, president of Institute of Agricultural Marketing Board of that the responsibility of the international grain prices soared 70% to blame speculators.

Challenges to food security

The latest “World Crop Prospects and Food Situation” report predicts that global cereal output in 2010 was 2.239 billion tons, 2010 to 2011 the annual world consumption of cereals amounted to 2.248 billion tons, is expected to yield higher than nine million tons this year. However, due to relatively large cereal stocks, the supply will remain sufficient. 2010 to 2011 the annual consumption ratio of world cereal stocks 23%, significantly higher than the year 2007 to 2008 during the food crisis hit 19.6% of the lowest in 30 years. Current grain prices are still lower than the 2008 peak of 1 / 3.

FAO experts said the global food supply and demand from the current perspective, there is no sign of food crisis broke out again. However, sharp fluctuations in food prices pose a major threat to food security. As food prices rise, low-income food-deficit countries around the world 77 years from 2010 to 2011 cereal import bill than the previous year, an increase of 8%.

FAO and WFP joint press release issued recently said that, while hungry people around the world over one billion from the peak last fall, but more than 900 million hungry people is still “unacceptable.” If the current trend of re-emergence of food prices continues, the future of world hunger reduction efforts will be affected.

Diouf said FAO Director-General, United Nations Millennium Development Goals established by 2015 the proportion of hungry people around the world to 10%, this ratio is currently 16%. Higher grain prices will continue to face serious threats to this goal.

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