Widely expected the Fed will be officially launched tomorrow, the second round of quantitative easing program. Since October interest rate announced by the United States in September minutes of the meeting showed that Fed policy makers believe that soon may need to provide support for the weak economic recovery. Participants at the meeting discussed how to operation is the best way; most decision-makers “feel in the near future to further relax the policy may be appropriate.”

8,9 In fact, the Fed once again practiced in disguise easing program is the first time the quantitative easing program maturity funds for the purchase of various long-term U.S. bonds. As for the expected second round of the scale of quantitative easing monetary policy, Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman said, if it will launch the second round of quantitative easing, the scale must be large enough to work on the market. He expected every month, “$ 100,000,000,000 highly consistent with previous practice, so I think this level should be considered absolute in the range. However, if the total amount of only 1,000 million, a bit too small.” Market analysis, the scale of 100 billion U.S. dollars per month, you may even buy 5 months, and some say that the total size will be large to 20,000 billion U.S. dollars.

Just last March the Federal Reserve implemented for the first time when the quantitative easing policy, the author had made a commentary: “quantitative easing: the Fed playing with fire?” Expected “the current U.S. financial crisis and severe economic downturn, not liquidity deficiency, but lack of confidence. ” “The United States implemented quantitative easing monetary policy, the inevitable flood of dollars around the world flock like the tides, the impact of national financial markets and monetary system. Other countries if the currency exchange system to free, America’s quantitative easing policy will result in these countries sharp appreciation of the currency, the trade deficit or surplus rose sharply reduced substantially. The fixed exchange rate similar to those implemented in countries and regions (mainly countries and regions, mostly in Asia), the trade surplus and huge foreign exchange reserves in U.S. dollar as the main currency generally species in the United States imposed quantitative easing policy, the domestic or local currency must be put in too much of this will result in strong inflation. ”

There were a lot of people disagree on the author’s judgments. But today, looking back, early secondary showed that the critical situation of recession, such as quantitative easing by the first stimulus to inflate the bubble once again faced with the confidence of burst, the global economy down again, so it had to launch the second round stimulus. The United States first and second round of the quantitative easing policy is expected to quantify, leading to other non-US foreign exchange market, the sharp appreciation of currencies against the U.S., even though these non-US currencies of the economies not universal deterioration in trade conditions. For the first time after the implementation of quantitative easing, the dollar index to the maximum in 8 months 14.55% devaluation. And since late August might once again came to the U.S. policy of quantitative easing after the U.S. dollar index to the current maximum has dropped 8.87%. Steadily emerging economies consequent higher prices, most economies choose to raise interest rates. China’s huge trade surplus and foreign exchange reserves as well as foreign exchange settlement and other aspects of institutional arrangements, resulting in foreign exchange continued to increase, high volume of base money, imported inflation effect is obvious, CPI index steadily higher.

Repeated use of the Federal Reserve monetary policy of quantitative easing move, I do not believe “conspiracy theory” argument, although I long to determine the quantitative easing monetary policy the Fed will inevitably lead to depreciation of the dollar. But the delay has been that the U.S. steady recovery of the fundamental reason is lack of confidence in the market and society, rather than a lack of liquidity. The main function of the quantitative easing policy, but a bit short-term boost the confidence of the community, but time is not long. Launched last March the U.S. policy of quantitative easing, the U.S. consumer confidence index does bottom out, but this year to stay up. The housing market home sales data, although last year was a little improvement after 3 months, but by last July to die, and by April this year after declining trend over the crisis raging Shihai fierce. The main effect of quantitative easing, in fact, occurred in the financial sector, mainly to inflate the bubble. Since last March, the global stock markets have set off a round of bull market. While the second loose monetary policy expectations, but also led to the rise in the current round of global stock markets. However, the quantitative easing congestion for the financial market confidence in the effectiveness of maintenance time is very limited.

Have to say that the quantitative easing policy in addition to the confidence of financial markets and society is only limited, short-term improvement, but simply can not promote social and consumer confidence in the fundamental improvement in the field, actually spend a great social currency for the monetary authorities and their confidence. Federal Reserve, including the implementation of a loose monetary policy of other countries, whenever the implementation of easy monetary policy, or lead to its own currency in the foreign exchange market decline in the value, or cause the body’s own devaluation of the currency in the economy, is proof.

Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the global monetary system is based mainly on the basis of national credit. The implementation of the monetary system of national credit, the currency is one of stability of the country for the currency issue must have a rational and moderate. Not consider the stability of currency, and the amount of currency as a means of starting the economy, undermined the basis of national credit currency. Internally, through the implementation of monetary inflation over the economic issue, in fact, in the plunder of ordinary workers. A large number of foreign currency of evaporation in the implicit debt. This policy, implemented every time, that is the currency of the country of their own credit blow. Lengthy, wire sawing off, there are national credit consume that day.the currency will collapse completely. The greater the amount of loose money, the process shorter.

Therefore, it should not have such a variety of quantitative easing monetary policy move, as a restoration of social and market confidence in the “panacea”, which is actually an addictive eating “poison”, would seriously damage and monetary loss or simply on its own credit, leading to disastrous economic consequences.

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