Two European Central Bank Have to Wait

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke restart “pouring money” operations, are given to the European Central Bank’s monetary policy toward the two new “shock.”

It seems in many market participants, both the European Central Bank may delay the withdrawal or suspension of the Bank of England to follow up a new round of quantitative easing, the central bank will be two options at this point in time to wait.

ECB delay exit?

European Central Bank yesterday announced the 1% benchmark interest rate unchanged to maintain and keep the overnight lending rate and the overnight deposit rate at 1.75% and 0.25%, with market expectations. President Jean-Claude Trichet at a news conference later reiterated that the current level of interest rates “very appropriate” and said non-conventional loan scheme in December to discuss the meeting.

From Germany, Luxembourg, Belgium, Italy and the Netherlands have warned members of monetary policy, low interest rates and the need to prevent the implementation of unconventional monetary policy for too long, and that should be taken in the first quarter of next year out further measures.

Although the European Central Bank had hinted unconventional initiatives tend to gradually retracement, Jean-Claude Trichet also position the news conference, “I believe U.S. policy is not designed to take the weak dollar”, but market participants apparently did not so optimistic.

Many analysts view the Fed to restart the long-term debt 600 billion U.S. dollars acquisition plans, it could prompt the European Central Bank delays exit plan, mainly because a new round of the Fed “printing money” plan will lead to the dollar, euro, and thus the European regional export-led recovery process be adversely affected.

With Citigroup in London, chief euro zone economist Juergen Michels saying that the Fed is “diluted” value of the dollar, while the European Central Bank is clearly not happy to see an increasing appreciation of the euro. Since early June, the euro has risen against the dollar 17%, while Citigroup is expected that this rate will continue to rise this year to 1.44 level.

Barclays Capital in London, Julian Callow, chief European economist, pointed out that the European Central Bank will therefore exit the program is likely to delay.

ABN Amro head of macroeconomic research in Amsterdam, Nick Kounis also pointed out that the expected economic recovery in the U.S. and Europe will be the basic conditions and central bank initiatives simultaneously.

British central bank or not to “follow up”

Bank of England governor Mervyn looks gold will choose to wait, not in a hurry to join the camp of the Federal Reserve further relaxed.

Bank of England also announced last night to maintain the current 0.5% benchmark interest rate unchanged, while maintaining the 200 billion pounds of assets the acquisition of the same size. Date from March 2009, the British central bank has kept monetary policy unchanged.

Although the Bank of England has been “entangled” in the weak economy and high inflation, between and in the last month, has hinted that does not rule out the possibility of expanding the scale of asset acquisition, but the surprisingly strong economic growth is likely to allow them to temporarily stop.

Data showed the UK’s third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) unexpectedly increased 0.8% after analysts predicted for the double; the same time, the September inflation rate is as high as 3.1%, more than 3% for seven consecutive months The inflation target ceiling.

With the former British Treasury official, large and capital markets economist Hetal Mehta in London as saying that the U.S. and the UK is very different from the growth of the UK economy is better than expected, coupled with high inflation, the Bank of England would not extend the fixed-width measures.

Of course, some market participants still believe that “entangled” in the economy and inflation, the Bank of England will eventually restart fixed-width policy. According to the latest Bloomberg survey, economists believe the Bank of England will continue to expand the 50 billion pounds next year, acquisition of assets size.

In addition, the Bank of Japan will be scheduled for mid-November meeting on interest rates moved up to November 4 to 5 held, immediately after the Fed meeting on interest rates. The move is widely believed that the Federal Reserve’s meeting on the results in order to make a timely response. But not fast dollar fell sharply against the yen, the Bank of Japan is expected to further expand the easing measures may be suspended.

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