National Monetary Policy Forced Differentiation

U.S. $ 600,000,000,000 a quantitative easing program once again turn the world’s monetary policy became the two lines of the tone stops, of which his party is almost forced to stand aside.

Line is the United States and Japan led the implementation of the quantitative easing policy and low interest rates or zero interest rates in Western economies; line is based on the emerging market countries and the economic recovery ahead of countries such as Australia. The former spread depreciation of the dollar and U.S. dollar caused by high international commodity prices, thus bringing the latter imported inflationary pressures, which have frequently taken to increase interest rates even raising the deposit reserve ratio and other measures to restrict capital flows out to resist foreign influence .

This forced differentiation under the current has completely emerged, and people seem to not be expected in the next G20 summit, what countries will reach this state the same idea.

The first few months, the U.S. policy of quantitative easing early has led to an overt or covert intervention in countries in the exchange rate of events occurred, and the infighting between the exchange rate is far from stopped. Even if Japan and the United States on the same rank, the same can also be taken to follow the U.S. policy of quantitative easing, but it is difficult to withstand the depreciation of the dollar appreciation of the yen brought, that he had to come out the first direct intervention in currency markets. This shows that in U.S. dollar-dominated international monetary system, as long as the U.S. dollar, “cough”, even if the U.S. followers, is also to be “cold”.

Despite the dollar’s “boss” status is still no one can replace, but the “boss” is not only unable to maintain the stability of the global monetary system, the opposite is also time and again caused “unrest”, which is bound to allow more countries are forced to revolt. Related reports have shown that for the Fed to save the economy moves to expand U.S. distribution, Latin America and Asia and other emerging economies, policy makers have begun to consider the future development of new measures to restrict capital flows. South Korean Minister of Planning said that the future will be “actively” considering a number of controls on capital flows; the Brazilian Minister of Foreign Trade also said the Fed’s action or to compel other countries to put “retaliatory measures”; Thailand, said that concerted action further increase the possibility to check the large dollar inflows to emerging markets.

A “sniper war” is already inevitable, but act more in the current run is forced. Example, in response to inflation, interest rates have frequent access path; response to the proliferation of dollar liquidity, have raised the deposit reserve rate to other foreign policy.

This, the Chinese were no exception, China’s central bank to raise interest rates after the accident for now, is no longer an accident, people have begun to reverse the expected future rate hikes will continue, but the problem of liquidity to continue to raise the deposit reserve ratio seems not far off.

Although many policy and are forced to, but in the process, reform and improve the national will of the international monetary system will be more consistent. At the same time, countries in the domestic policy initiative will have many changes to China, for example, the data show that cross-border trade, the RMB settlement increased significantly in the third quarter, the bank accumulated for cross-border trade, the RMB settlement 126480000000 yuan, 1.6 times more than the second quarter. This initiative shows that the internationalization of the RMB in its own way under the guidance will increasingly weaken the dollar fluctuations. Together with other emerging market countries, especially the “BRIC” Currency increasingly international, eventually in the future new international monetary system a huge impact, dollar “dominance” situation will be a step by step weakened.

But in the current, because all countries face is not the case, the phenomenon of decoupling of monetary policy is also increased, interference between national short-term monetary policy is also inevitable chaos after the reunification may take some time before.

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