Fed QE2’s recent trip to reproduce the last century that crisis, the dollar crisis in the United States passed the scene of flooding. Bretton Woods system in the U.S.-led II dying, the global economy needs another monetary system, “successor” Bretton Woods III, the monetary system “may need to include the U.S. dollar, euro, yen, sterling and to the international of, and then open the renminbi capital account. ”

The system should also consider gold as an inflation, deflation and market expectations of future monetary value of the global reference point. The logic according to Zoellick, the currency exchange rate stability after World War II gave birth to the Bretton Woods system of strong demand for I, and the limited nature of the gold inadequate due to a de facto monetary tightening of monetary policy effects, and reduce the U.S. gold reserves, the dollar can not be linked to gold, which gave birth to the Bretton Woods system, II: “decoupling of gold and the dollar, other currencies pegged to the dollar to continue.”

Recently a number of years not only the status of the United States a steady decline of the global economy and U.S. dollar currency exchange rate policy is entirely based on developing the domestic economy, the Fed has actually completely unable to undertake the duties of the central bank world currency. Bretton Woods II had in fact bankrupt, the future world monetary system needs to establish new stability framework. To undertake the logic of the front, perhaps the Bretton Woods system III (a claim that if there is any) should be “decoupled from gold and the dollar, other currencies and the dollar decoupling” may be “decoupled from gold and the dollar, other currencies and gold-linked” .

From Zoellick’s analysis, the Bretton Woods system III is more like a mixture of the two logic. Namely the “decoupling of gold and the dollar and other currencies to the dollar in parallel, part of the whole monetary system tied to gold.” As for the new monetary system in the U.S. dollar and other currencies in the relationship between the monetary system to the entire composite build a limited contact with the gold, such as the gold as inflation, deflation, and monetary value of the stability indicator is still unclear.

But some can be sure there are two: First, the U.S. dollar, euro, yen, pound sterling and the future composition of the complex monetary system the renminbi, the dollar is likely to continue to dominate the currency. This is related to ease of use of money, which is why the dollar to replace gold position, the other currency has always been difficult to overcome U.S. dominance of the main reasons. It more bluntly, is that if the world using only one currency, then trade between countries affected by the interference of the exchange rate will be greatly reduced.

Taken a number of currencies rather than the dominant currency to the country to meet two conditions, one of the country itself and the large countries in the world trade data, and in the global economy dominate the political system; Second, determination and ability of the state assume the functions of some of the world central banks, that are not domestic problems through monetary factors will spread to other countries. In fact after the U.S. by other countries that it is faulted, however, is from the source, in order to make monetary policy from domestic political and economic factors interfere, change is difficult for other countries to do so. So it can be predicted that the dollar will continue in the coming years the so-called Bretton Woods system dominate III, III and II in fact does not appear much different.

Second, the monetary system of gold and linked to the new complex, and as inflation, deflation, the signal indicator, it may be possible in theory, but in practice, the operation will face enormous difficulties. Directly back to the gold and currency pricing system being, I am afraid I can hardly agree with Zoellick, after all, already the world’s economic growth can provide gold production beyond the limits of growth.

The composite system will be linked to gold and gold is intended as a reference currencies stable object, but in fact the U.S. dollar, euro, British pound, yuan and other currencies, including composite system for maintaining the advantages of considering Guo Jing Mao, would be difficult to get be acceptable to all parties a trade-weighted index of currencies, not to talk about how the technology will be linked to gold and the entire monetary system. Once a party of composite currency linked to gold inflation reference data calls among the increase or decrease the weight of its own, it probably will be a whole new monetary system faced a crisis.

Simple structure is often the most stable structures are often complex because of the collapse of a minor factors. In the global political and economic system has not been fully integrated on the occasion, in order to achieve effective cooperation between national currencies probably premature. Thus the global currency system will continue to be struggling under the onslaught of the strong dollar for a long time.

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