A week ago, “fooling” the Irish for assistance that never fell, following a debt crisis in Europe “domino” Who is? Market has been the vigilant eyes on Portugal and Spain. It is generally concerned that if the euro area member states and then down a few, a total of only 750 billion euros of European stability fund also enough it?

Compared with Ireland, Portugal more weak economic foundation, even as early as 2008, even before the global financial crisis has exposed many problems. Over the years, the country’s sluggish growth from 1999 to 2008, average economic growth rate is less 1%.

Placed in front of the Government of Portugal is the most practical question high debt and deficit. In 2009, the Portuguese public debt to GDP, 76%, more than 66% in Ireland; deficit accounted for 9.4% of GDP, the highest in the EU Member States fourth. Not only that, 10 months of 2010, the Portuguese government spending continues to grow.

In recent days, the Portuguese 10-year bonds and comparable Treasury yields in Germany and again the difference between the record, 24, Portugal 5-year Treasury credit default swaps (CDS) increased by 21 basis points to 510 points, the cost of financing has reached unbearable high.

The midst of sadness, in the EU Member States, a relatively small share of the Portuguese economy, the banking sector share in the overall economy is not large, such as the debt crisis, the country still are “incorrigible” category.

In contrast, the Spanish thing and if it were, the consequences will be very serious.

Greece, Spain, close to the total economy 5 times the average annual GDP EU’s total GDP, 8.9%; the total banking assets of nearly 3.5 trillion euros, compared with Ireland, Greece and Portugal combined assets of three banks nearly one trillion euros. Clearly, this “Pearl of the Iberian Peninsula” Once the fall, the EU would be a devastating blow.

Spain’s economy, “chronic illness” There are three. First, the high unemployment rate in 2010 probably will reach 20%, higher than double the whole of Portugal, the same 13% higher than Ireland and Greece to 12%. Secondly, the Spanish current account deficit-GDP ratio of about 5%, highlights the country’s economy is in “sub-healthy” state, meaning that their competitiveness is weakening. Third, Spain is the EU member states the real estate market bubble of the most serious one of the countries. The long-term housing market overcapacity, a large number of vacant housing and other issues, so that prices remain under pressure, a serious threat to the Spanish mortgage payment of the balance sheet of banks.

As the economic outlook is bleak, 24, 5-year Treasury CDS Spain also reached record levels.

European stabilization fund, a responsible person and asked in a recent interview, said the euro will collapse on the market for Ireland’s aid and Portugal or Spain may soon need to worry about not result in the euro zone rescue division, the euro zero risk of collapse. Behind the promises, lack of EU surplus in the hands of relief, I am afraid my heart also in tears.

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