A month ago, when the Fed launched the second round of the quantitative easing policy, the policy against the voices of criticism, but the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke put down 5 “relentless,” said, can not Paichu QE2 600 billion U.S. dollars more than originally planned the possibility of scale.

Bernanke by CBS plans to broadcast on the evening of 5 prime-time “60 Minutes” program to make such a stand. According to program CBS has released the latest trailer, Bernanke said in an interview, “explains why the Federal Reserve announced plans to buy 600 billion U.S. dollars debt, and rejected the criticism against the QE2, emphasizing the large-scale purchase of U.S. bonds and the inflation rate will not lead to appears sharp. ” He also said the program, “QE2’s final bond size will probably buy more than originally planned.”

Unemployment data for Bernanke, “embolden”

3, last month’s monetary policy meeting, the Fed decided in November this year to next June to buy a total cumulative size of 6,000 billion dollars in U.S. Treasury bonds, the monthly purchase of the scale is 750 billion dollars.

In a sense, the latest available economic data for Bernanke’s remarks provided support. 3 U.S. Labor Department data released this year in November, the nation’s unemployment rate of non-agricultural sector increased by 0.2 percentage points in October to 9.8%; this point, the U.S. unemployment rate has been 19 consecutive months, 9% of the horizontal line at the top.

Although the Fed’s de facto introduction of QE2 is 11 month, but the plan was first mooted in August when the market and had already begun to impact the real economy. In this context, the U.S. unemployment rate rise, not fall, in addition to mid-November release of October U.S. consumer price index rose only 0.2% qoq, 0.3% lower than expected, the Fed is moving away from quantitative easing inflation and employment goals become a reality; and Bernanke at this time over claims that the scale size or QE2, it appears as it should be.

U.S. QE3 expected to heat up down

Strictly speaking, Bernanke is in November before the release of U.S. employment data, that November 30 to accept CBS interview. But given the highest decision makers in the financial field as one of the United States, Bernanke, expect the unemployment rate will not change direction too sure. Under this premise, the U.S. media that its announced QE2 scale may expand, first of all is to take the opportunity to Jiangdiao quantitative easing policy introduced the Federal Reserve once again the necessity, but also its policy to the market size of uncertainty.

June 3, St. Louis Fed President Bullard has said that the quantitative easing program on the effect of the Federal Reserve expressed optimism, but he did not support the 600 billion U.S. dollars in advance to determine the number, because “it can be adjusted according to economic data, hoping the Federal Reserve through number of meetings to determine the size of the share debt “; Philadelphia Fed President Pu Luosuo and Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto also general support for Brad’s view. Bernanke’s speech, but this will greatly reduce the QE2 down the scale of the space.

As market confidence, the fact that Bernanke’s speech will play a more “icing on the cake” – a saw with the launch of QE2 Bernanke’s investors against all the odds, choose to believe the Fed will resolutely implement the expansion of quantitative easing by policies to respond to the dismal economic data. 3-day trading, the three major New York stock market indexes rose slightly across the board.

However, analysts pointed out that Bernanke’s speech, the QE2’s only clear policy enforcement, but can not prove the effectiveness of its policy outlook. Really have little effect once the QE2, and the quantitative easing by the Fed would still like to pursue policy objectives means, then a new round of the recent rampant quantitative easing policy, and ultimately will increase the possibility of being released.

In fact, whether the rebound in the unemployment rate, or the QE2 over the scale of project, “notice”, are expected to continue to make QE3 related to heat up. 3-day non-farm payroll data came out, the dollar index fell more than 1% of the day and hit one-week low of 79.27.

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