China Structure Adjustment Face Challenge
Macro level or social level, many scholars, including the most basic government officials may also have discussed, GDP is mainly driven by FDI investment in export income gap is very large, aging population, look at my level is more concerned about In fact, both China’s basic national conditions of structural change is multi-layered and diverse, and industrial structural changes are very common in all developing countries will discuss the formula, the regional economic change is a big country there is no doubt a big problem, changes in urban and rural structure Urbanization is the urban-rural structure as long as the change in ownership structure change is enterprise reform. Why do I add “diversity” the word theory is generally urban-rural dual structure, and the future, when perhaps the binary is not enough, perhaps at least triple, the regional economic structure is ternary, the industrial structure to a little more complicated to The first macro level, simply give me a map, you can find a lot of our more detailed analysis or data, the most basic view, in fact, is to get a phenomenon, we can observe, in the past many years is the most important investment-led The.
Income not mentioned just now that some guests, the per capita GDP of these pillars of green, from the height of terms in the middle, than it employed in urban units higher remuneration than the average GDP, per capita in rural areas to fall into the blue urban residents household disposable income, the average labor compensation per capita disposable income into something worse? The largest is taxes, of course, plus pay for Social Security, Medicare, etc., in general, rising slope, the average rate of increase of labor compensation is very large, the slope is high, very steep, but much weaker disposable income in this, so a big part of the tax actually removed, a serious imbalance in the distribution of income, China’s Gini coefficient of 0.28 from the beginning of reform and opening up to 0.48 in 2007. The past two years has exceeded 0.5, the World Bank report shows, U.S. 5% of the population control 60% of the wealth, while China is 1% of households control 41.4% of the wealth of the world, China has become the most serious global polarization state one.
Economic factors do not speak here, and an aging population, have mentioned Professor Wei Shangjin very unique demographic imbalance in sex ratio, aging of the population to become very real problem, has become a very real factor, we can see with this for the most basic background, the rise in labor costs, which is an inevitable trend, it has a passive side to side is also active, the central economic work next twelve five people to enhance the economic level, that the labor costs, an aging population means You supply the labor force with less and less, less and less supply you have to pay higher wages to the labor force employment is possible, this is the most basic supply and demand, the State Council Development Research Center of Jiange more than 3,000 villages in China research, found that more 230 million surplus rural labor to cities, accounting for 47.9% of the total rural labor force, while only 5.1% of the remaining 24.81 million labor force, is basically difficult to transfer out of the sick and elderly . I am also on the EMBA class last week, he said I was in Shanghai to do agriculture, growing vegetables in Shanghai a couple who add up the average age of the two 150-year-old demographic which has the concept of the demographic dividend can be reflected in the dependency ratio relatively low, the specific data is not so important here to have look, the population dependency ratio is in fact the population of each raising the number of working-age non-working age population, 2008 population age structure, 0-14-year-old 25,166 million, accounting for 19% ,15-59 years old 91,647 million, accounting for 69% of the 15989 people aged over 60, accounting for 12%, of which 10 956 people aged over 65, accounting for 8.3.
Baby Boomers community is the demographic dividend and then down into the population balance, the first phase of Japan’s infancy, the next just after the collapse of the Japanese economy, Japan’s economy in 1991, ah lost 20 consecutive years, China’s demographic dividend forecasts into 2015, the population balance . China is not repeating the mistakes of the Japanese economy, the demographic dividend may turn the population balance, is exactly zero change in the Japanese economy from the industry point of retaliation, all the contradictions journal when you turn up to solve, you do not cure conflict indicators continue to accrue, When the accumulated total of the outbreak, many people think is 2012. Some people say that buying gold is a way, that gold bought into the chicken coop, EMBA students may not watch TV and see potential to know, why buy gold on a chicken coop.
Third, the transformation of economic development is the most fundamental constraints faced by our long-term, staff and resource constraints, in fact, there are environmental constraints, has become increasingly unbearable, all things are beginning to aggregate into short-term conflicts, changes in industrial structure is a factor, technological progress and innovation in China’s economic development is a fundamental factor in the long-term, the Chinese economy can not be sustained, and the next decade or two, then remained crucial to sustainable development, Urbanization is an important topic, can narrow the income gap, no doubt very important, the system becomes very important to push the bear.
China’s price level to catch up with the United States but also for 40 years, now runs anywhere in the U.S. and Europe, sold in the supermarket, “China” definitely cheaper than they are, as long as “Made in China” cheaper than domestic, and perhaps China Income the level of per capita, even 20,30 years to catch up with the United States, not necessarily 40 years, but the price to more than U.S. and Europe, how to explain, the resource gap in accordance with the 2015 National Mineral Resource Planning, according to the current energy extraction and consumption speed of 45 in 2020 the shortage of 19 kinds of minerals, 60% dependence on foreign oil, iron ore 40%.
Evolution and adjustment of industrial structure should increase the proportion of tertiary industry, but also with our relationship pricing structure. To become the dominant post-industrialization of China and Shanghai, it does not achieve this. This is the 2009 proportion of the three products.
Is more important for future long-term development, technological progress and innovation is of fundamental interest. Stan Shih, Taiwan’s entrepreneurs, the more upstream industrial chain for added value asked him, the more higher value-added downstream, manufacturing is the lowest in the middle, which is “Made in China” position.
Since the crisis, the basic trend of the market economy is not good to the Government to intervene, this is the most basic ideas, industrial policy is back, but he brought the question is, if all issues are pushed back by the short-term policy like I said, will continue to accumulate, to what extent the accumulation of the outbreak, the exact time is not know, but it is predictable. Cairns has a famous saying “In the long run we are all dead,” you are not aware of any famous quote, “I die even if Hongshuitaotian” two words seemed almost, if not long-term vision, do not take into account what would happen to the future long-term development in China entirely focused on short-term policy, then the long run we will be punished.
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