After 2020, negotiations may be similar to the “Copenhagen Protocol” form, there is only single-track legal negotiations. On the “Kyoto Protocol” second commitment period, the choice of negotiating tracks are basically three types: first, the actual meaning of double-track; second form of double-track, in fact, the monorail; third, the merger of form and substance.

From the current situation, the international community for what to choose? Should be said that the first option unlikely. The United States are not the “Kyoto Protocol” Parties; some developed countries have made clear that to give up the “Kyoto Protocol”; more importantly, the “Kyoto Protocol” developed under the contents of the second commitment period negotiations have been sidelined, the substantive content has shifted to “the Convention” of negotiations under the track. Very small possibility of a third option. Currently, developing countries remained a cohesive whole, though in polarization, but the basis of the four countries represented by the developing countries will continue to adhere to the camp, the Bali road map, maintenance of common but differentiated responsibilities, requires developed countries to set an example, a substantial emissions. If you can not save in the form of the “Kyoto Protocol”, developing countries will be lost on the moral high ground on climate change. As a compromise, or compromise, the second most likely choice. With a dual form, developing countries will retain its moral high ground position, the developed countries in the “Kyoto Protocol” under the negotiations, there is not much commitment to the substance; “Convention” under the track of negotiations, the developed countries to strengthen the development constraints in the national responsibility, developing countries are capital and technology and other aspects of certain compensation.

As a developing economy, China is certainly the first option to fight resolutely against the third possibility. But we also must recognize that China’s power is clearly not enough about the choice of negotiating tracks. Moreover, China’s largest emitter position, per capita emissions have been much higher than the world average, and the fact that the identity of the Chinese economy has shrunk, so if China wants to completely get rid of responsibility difficult. Also, the UN climate conference in 2011 held in South Africa, South Africa is the foundation members of the four countries, South Africa hope to see as China should not and can not be ignored. Brazil will host the 2012 United Nations “in about 20 years,” the summit, with the “Basic Four” members of the Brazilian should have a positive attitude. UN climate conference in 2012, South Korea and Qatar have proposed contractor will. Our best option is to flow, and for the occasion.

Should be said that the second option also has resistance – the developed countries will not let go, will further issue by repealing “the Kyoto Protocol,” the voice. China needs the international community, particularly developing country Parties, together with adherence to the “Kyoto Protocol”, maintenance-track negotiating process. For emerging economies, including China, the body, the maintenance of two-track system, in a sense, form is more important than content. What we need is to be the second commitment period expires in the year (2020) ago, for a relatively relaxed period of development; rare use of the next ten years to accelerate the industrialization and urbanization, the impact of emissions to peak for the future development and accumulation of capital and technology resources for mitigation.

Of containing China in the dual-track negotiations for, mainly in the United States and Europe deal with the current three forces represented by the basic pattern. Low-carbon development in the EU has been great progress, strong willingness reduction, effectiveness is better, more practical needs of developing countries to understand. Fossil Energy Group, United States-led Congress and local interests, it is difficult to make comparable with the EU goal of emission reduction commitments, it is difficult to come up with a larger number of additional funding to support developing countries response to climate change action; the U.S. government’s global strategy and geopolitical consciousness strong, as the emerging developing economies as a rival; the United States has abundant capital and advanced technology, but great resistance to low-carbon transition; climate negotiations on emission reduction targets and the commitment of capital and technology, the United States to meet the expectations of the international community great difficulties. China’s greenhouse gas emission reduction targets, the objective to promote energy saving and emission reduction, economic restructuring and structural adjustment, the promotion of sustainable development and ensure energy security; determination to control greenhouse gas emissions, a large effect.

Therefore, if the United States in international affairs, climate change, “out” reasons not due to China; but to show the play and the responsibility of the Chinese in virtually reshape the pattern of international governance. China’s excuse is for, not only occupy the moral high ground and enhance its international voice and safeguard the unity of the developing countries, and will actively promote the domestic economic restructuring and transformation.

However, to note: First, commitment to mitigation actions consistent with the actual economic development; second, with the “basic four” other members of the communication, enhance mutual trust, and concerted efforts; third, low-carbon technologies to enhance cooperation with the European Union and market development, improve the competitiveness of EU carbon economy; Fourth, attention to South-South cooperation, and enhance China’s less developed countries and small island countries with the cooperation of quality; Fifth, we should actively begin after 2020, the framework for possible negotiations with the monorail details of the study.

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