Guide language: on April 22, media quoted CBRC relevant personage of the claim that, banking regulatory commission has once again asked the bank evaluation, if house prices fall as much as 50%, on real estate loans may influence. Falling house prices 50% of possibility? If house prices fall, can produce five into what effect?

Falling house prices 50% of possibility?
Speculative demand was temporarily stopped, but lead to high prices factor has not eliminated.
January 26, the standing committee of state council launched eight real estate, better-acknowledged restricted is the top priority. Then, Qingdao, Beijing, Shanghai and so on have issued \”restricted to make\” conditions.

Chongqing, Shanghai real estate taxes is restricted to spare, pilot January policy in the country more than 30 cities also already has promulgated, the main city dropped, but the volume of sales still did not happen prices head-turning changes.

In the new round of adjustment and control policies, we might as well not discussed under the administrative means \”restricted\” whether conform to the market rules, but real estate speculation needs indeed have been effectively, housing on the demand level by temporarily blocks the upward pressure. But it should be pointed out that the fundamental factors resulting in higher prices is not eliminate, such as land of fiscal and monetary super hair and the state-owned monopoly leads to corporation investment channel through the narrow, etc.

Does the price down critical look at the central and local governments game.
Real estate businessman in its micro bo after Mr Pan said, \”this year\’s house prices, not market calculate, nor developers calculate, more is not RenZhiJiang calculate, is the government have the final say.\” It recognizes the essence of prices drop.

Public information display, ending March 31, the city has a 1352 608 city released this year according to the requirement of new housing price control goals. But most of the key cities for the control target set prices this year is mainly the reference of GDP growth, local government target or house prices will rise (because land fiscal), and this and the central government in the hope of reducing the target prices vary greatly.

Therefore, begins in early April, the state council sent DuZhaZu, eight to 16 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) implementation of the real estate market regulation policy measures under the state council shall carry out special situation of supervision. On April 20th, eight DuZhaZu has continued to return to Beijing real estate. The 21st century economic reports quoted one close to live JianBu personage says, although overall inspectors results, but most still need to summarize the DuZhaZu summary of proposed that places still need to central control real estate will be implementing policy into practice. Visible, China does the price will fall or down to see how much, the key of the central and local governments game result.

Falling house prices 50%, for Banks, developers and have a house race what effect?

House prices fell 30% is bank line, part of them big says can withstand five into decline.
If house prices fall as much as 50%, to bank may have much impact? CBRC) in May 2010 mortgage stress test of the situation is installed by the national real estate prices respectively, the average fell 10%, 20% and 30%. In this year YanQingMin President assistant CBRC NPC and CPPCC, said that during pressure testing, real estate controls for bank bad-debt pressure formed the bottom line number is 30%.

Already disclosure of the annual report from the 2010 annual report listed Banks see personal housing loan balance, bank of all the basic loan balances in 10%-20%, real estate loans remain at the level of 5% to 10%, real estate related loan non-conforming rate is relatively low.

In fact, different bank to falling house prices bear ability or will be different. Previously, media reports said MaWeiHua 2010, zhaohang governor, said it was falling house prices 30% risk, but there are also big controlled to journalists do personage, the bank can withstand the house-price declines in five into line.

For more than half of the developers effect: will be washed out developers?
If house prices fall, the developers blow half will be fatal. According to the real estate investment \”buy or not to buy up fall\” rule, developers will be significantly lower sales, capital chain will also tight, weaker developers have been washed out also become great probability events. Actually, in the current round of macro-control and guarantee room construction under the background of the great leap forward of the developers already more and more bad situation.

\”1025\” period, the construction of 36m national plan, an average annual construction guarantee room 720 million sets, this means that almost half the housing supply will take by the government. Property developers Mr Pan quoted in the implementation of pointed out that with planning, the real estate market pattern will also take place the significant adjustment, more than half of room enterprises will exit, leaving room enterprises will gradually to residential high-end or commercial real estate transformation.
Judging from financing area, \”new countries, after eight,\” come come on stage, the detailed rules across all restricted urban sales volume fell significantly, this makes room expensive capital chain is facing serious test. And since in 2011, many listed companies in Hong Kong, part hair high debt instrument interest exceeds 13%. If plus house prices to Banks to reduce half of the developers will be loan, so many developers of the disaster.

Will produce negative assets and families of first-tier cities middle class biggest influence
House prices have room for the influence of family is complex, the biggest impact should be those loans purchase middle class. But, to this kind of person, will differ, as some homebuyers not high in the house.

Hong Kong\’s experience may refer to. Since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, house prices from 1997 to start falling, highest cumulative decline in 2003 SARS period already amounted to 65%, Hong Kong people wealth evaporated, average each hk $2.2 trillion 267 million hk dollar, owners loss negative assets toll to 17 million (less than 700 million population.
Research shows that wealth big social structure adjustment makes major changes in Hong Kong as a social subject, originally the middle class, the proletariat class and narrow rapidly expanding negative asset class. If house prices fall five into, in Beijing, Shanghai, shenzhen and other prices higher first city, perhaps will step under the Asian financial crisis of Hong Kong\’s footsteps.

Falling house prices 50%, China\’s economy may not necessarily \”hard\”
Falling home prices may focus YuDaZhong cities, towns urbanization will not stop. Type
National statistics bureau chief economist YaoJingYuan previously said, \”real estate industry is very important, because it\’s strong pulling power. It pulled more than 50 industries, upstream steel, building materials, downstream pulled pull household appliances, could have been pulled into a curtain, textiles.\” If house prices fall into, commodity house five slow-moving, developers, new commodity house underpowered whether that can lead to real estate industry \”pull effect\” is lost, giving China a hard landing \”?

From this real estate regulatory scale, the urban housing more than 30 restricted mainly concentrated in Beijing, Shanghai, shenzhen, guangzhou, sanya, haikou, tianjin, hangzhou, suzhou, wenzhou and nanjing, and house prices higher, foam larger cities. However, China\’s urbanization will not therefore and stopped, especially during the 2010 CPPCC proposed \”New Deal\” and \”expanding urbanization county economy\” policy, give county economic development, around town some support to the infrastructure, produced in urbanization housing needs will not be affected by falling house prices and stopped.

Data shows that urbanization rate in 2009 and 2010 47% to 50%, by 2030 at 65%, enter the level of the moderately developed countries. Urbanization rate rise, the demand for homes will also corresponding growth, the demand for at least the next two decades will not disappear.

Even if house prices fall five into mass guarantee room construction also can pull related industry
If house prices fall, security room 5 into whether alternative commodity house, undertake the responsibility to pull related industry? Our country \”, according to 1025 \”program over the next five years, China will ensure the construction of 36m, among them, the 2011 room of million sets of 2012 million sets, behind three years and 1600 million sets, make national coverage affordable housing to 20%.

Ensure the architectural area of the room room have how old? In January 2011 JianBu claims, low-cost, live to rent, and the construction of small family is given priority to, building area of control are in 40 square metre. If each year in the two years by million sets, each were calculated according to 40 square meters, about 4 million built security room square meters. According to the national bureau of statistics (NBS) said the 2010 national commodity house sales area 10.43 million square metre, visible, security room construction of commercial housing construction area accounts for about 4 percent.

If house prices fall into real estate on five of the relevant industries, pulling will not suddenly disappear, not including the commodity house construction has commenced, at least in the security room area, can replace four percent of the commercial construction vacancy. Security room construction could also pull steel, cement, home appliances and other areas of demand.

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